Player Watch; a new weekly feature.

Starting every Wednesday I'm going to be posting statistics on various prospects the Jays have in there system. Along with this, I will also be posting statistics on Big League players who are playing in rehab games in the minors to track their progress as well. I'll start of this weekly feature today by giving a brief description of all the players that I'll be tracking.

Prospects

The list of prospects that I've assembled was gathered threw various internet sources. I'll give a brief description of each.

Players
(clicking on a player will bring you to his summary)

Travis Snider
J.P Arencibia
Brian Jeroloman
Kyle Phillips
Brian Dopirak
Justin Jackson
David Cooper
Kevin Ahrens
Brad Emaus
Eric Thames
Scott Campbell

Pitchers

Ricky Romero
Brett Cecil
Brad Mills
Robert Ray
Marc Rzepczynski

Rehab Watch

Shaun Marcum
Scott Richmond
Casey Jansen

Summary

Travis Snider
Position LF, Bats/Throws L/L, Current Team: Las Vegas 51s (AAA)

Selected by the Toronto Blue Jays in the first round (14th overall) of the 2006 amateur entry Draft out of Jackson HS (Mill Creek, Wash.). We've seen Travis play with the Jays at the beginning of the season until he was sent down to AAA to try to bring up is batting average.

Rated the number one prospect in the system by Baseball America.

Stats to date:

	G	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	AVG	OPB	SLG
Blue Jays (AAA)	22	17	2	0	4	10	0.224	0.344	0.408
Blue Jays	32	24	6	0	3	12	0.242	0.292	0.394

Snider is not having near as good of a year as last where he started in HiA and eventually played for the Jays at the end of the season.

J.P Arencibia
Position C, Bats/Throws R/R, Current Team: Las Vegas 51s (AAA)

Selected by the Toronto Blue Jays in the first round (21st overall) of the 2007 amateur entry Draft. J.P has been seen as the catcher of the future of the Jays. He's rated the number two prospect in the system by BA. His stats to date are:

	G	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	AVG	OPB	SLG
Blue Jays (AAA)	72	70	24	1	10	44	0.244	0.295	0.439

Not too impressive, but as of lately, he's starting to heat up. If he continues on his current trend, we might get to see him in the Bigs at the end of the season.

Brian Jeroloman
Position C, Bats/Throws L/R, Current Team: New Hampshire Fisher Cats (AA)

Selected by the Toronto Blue Jays in the sixth round (180th overall) of the 2006 amateur entry Draft. Jeroloman has opened a lot of eyes this season; he's starting to heat up, but still has a ways to go, but he's definitely worth keeping an eye on.

To date:

	G	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	AVG	OPB	SLG
Blue Jays (AA)	74	58	12	0	6	22	0.228	0.337	0.346

Kyle Phillips
Position 3B, Bats/Throws L/R, Current Team: Las Vegas 51s (AAA)

Selected by the Minnesota Twins in the 10th round (302nd overall) of the 2002 amateur entry Draft. Signed by the Milwaukee Brewers in April 2006. Released by the Brewers on March 24, 2007. Signed by the Toronto Blue Jays as a Minor League free agent on March 30, 2007. Phillips is having a good season in AAA:

	G	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	AVG	OPB	SLG
Blue Jays (AA)	12	7	0	0	1	1	0.175	0.233	0.250
Blue Jays (AAA)	51	63	12	0	4	14	0.337	0.400	0.465

If the Jays do deal Rolen before the deadline, we might see him get a call-up; maybe not to start, but as an extra bat/glove on the bench. His .337/.400/.465 line is not too shabby at all.

Brian Dopirak
Position 3B/1B, Bats/Throws R/R, Current Team: Las Vegas 51s (AAA)

After being released by the Cubs in Spring Training, was signed by the Toronto Blue Jays and assigned to Class A Advanced Dunedin. Since then, he's made his way to AAA. Over 2009 he's had a great year:

	G	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	AVG	OPB	SLG
Blue Jays (AA)	87	101	29	1	19	68	0.308	0.374	0.576
Blue Jays (AAA)	5	7	3	0	0	4	0.333	0.318	0.476

He could eventually be a top 1B starter for the Jays.

Justin Jackson
Position SS, Bats/Throws R/R, Current Team: Dunedin Blue Jays (A+)

Selected by the Toronto Blue Jays in the first round (45th overall) of the 2007 amateur entry Draft. Being a recent first round draft pick, Justin as impressed. It will still be a few years before we see him playing in the Majors.

	G	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	AVG	OPB	SLG
Blue Jays (A+)	76	53	12	1	0	17	0.218	0.325	0.276

He's ranked as the Jays' number 4 prospect by BA

David Cooper
Position 1B, Bats/Throws L/L, Current Team: New Hampshire Fisher Cats (AA)

Selected by the Toronto Blue Jays in the first round (17th overall) of the 2008 amateur entry Draft. For a young kid, David is doing relatively well in AA this season:

	G	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	AVG	OPB	SLG
Blue Jays (AA)	81	77	19	0	4	39	0.257	0.337	0.360

He's rated as the number 5 prospect in the system by BA.

Kevin Ahrens
Position 3B, Bats/Throws S/R, Current Team: Dunedin Blue Jays (A+)

Selected by the Toronto Blue Jays in the first round (16th overall) of the 2007 amateur entry Draft. Kevin is struggling this season in Dunedin:

	G	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	AVG	OPB	SLG
Blue Jays (A+)	73	56	10	1	2	25	0.211	0.286	0.279

He's ranked as the number 6 prospects by BA.

Brad Emaus
Position 2B/3B, Bats/Throws R/R, Current Team: New Hampshire Fisher Cats (AA)

Selected by the Toronto Blue Jays in the 11th round (355th overall) of the 2007 amateur entry Draft. He's posting decent numbers in AA this year:

	G	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	AVG	OPB	SLG
Blue Jays (AA)	94	88	22	2	6	44	0.248	0.326	0.372

Last year, he won post season all-star credits in the FSL. He's ranked as the number 10 prospect in the system by BA

Eric Thames
Position OF, Bats/Throws L/R, Current Team: Dunedin Blue Jays (A+)

Eric could be a great future outfielder for the Jays, but at 22y/o he's at least a few years from being MLB ready. He is having a great year in Dunedin:

	G	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	AVG	OPB	SLG
Blue Jays (A+)	42	48	11	2	2	30	0.308	0.391	0.442

Thames is definitely someone to keep an eye on. If, in the future, the Jays decide to cut some spending, outfielding at the Big League level could be an issue.

Scott Campbell
Position 3B/2B, Bats/Throws L/R, Current Team: Las Vegas 51s (AAA)

Selected by the Blue Jays in the 10th round (300th overall) in the 2006 First-Year Player Draft out of Gonzaga. Campbell has made a nice progression from A+ to AAA this year:

	G	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	AVG	OPB	SLG
Blue Jays (A+)	5	10	1	0	0	3	0.500	0.522	0.550
Blue Jays (AA)	16	13	4	1	0	3	0.241	0.379	0.352
Blue Jays (AAA)	27	22	3	1	0	6	0.229	0.327	0.281

Ricky Romero
LHP, Current Team: Toronto Blue Jays

Selected out of Cal State Fullerton by the Toronto Blue Jays in the first round (6th overall) of the 2005 First Year Player Draft. Not much to say about Rickey; he's been a quality arm for the Jays all season:

	W	L	ERA	GS	IP	HR	BB	SO	WHIP
Blue Jays	7	4	3.25	14	91.1	12	35	77	1.32

He was ranked as the number 8 prospect in the system by BA.

Brett Cecil
LHP, Current Team: Las Vegas 51s

Selected by the Toronto Blue Jays in the first round (38th overall) of the 2007 amateur entry Draft. He played a couple of games with the Jays this season, but at only 23, he still needs some time in the pressure cooker.

	W	L	ERA	GS	IP	HR	BB	SO	WHIP
Blue Jays (AAA)	1	5	5.69	9	49.0	2	19	32	1.47
Blue Jays	3	1	5.40	8	45.0	8	17	33	1.69

He was ranked as the number 3 prospect in the system by BA.

Brad Mills
LHP, Current Team: Las Vegas 51s

Selected by the Toronto Blue Jays in the fourth round (145th overall) of the 2007 amateur entry Draft. Another young pitching arm that saw a little action in the Majors this season:

	W	L	ERA	GS	IP	HR	BB	SO	WHIP
Blue Jays (AAA)	2	8	4.06	14	84.1	6	35	72	1.40
Blue Jays	0	1	14.09	2	7.2	4	6	9	2.78

Mills is currently struggling; I wouldn't be surprised if he went down to AA to find his control again. He is ranked as the number 7 prospect in the Jays system.

Robert Ray
RHP, Current Team: Las Vegas 51s

Selected out of Texas A&M by the Toronto Blue Jays in the seventh round (206th overall) of the 2005 amateur entry Draft. Ray saw some actions in the Majors this year, but has been struggling on and off with an injury:

	W	L	ERA	GS	IP	HR	BB	SO	WHIP
Blue Jays (A+)	0	1	4.91	1	3.2	0	0	1	2.19
Blue Jays (AAA)	0	0	0.00	1	4.1	0	3	3	1.22
Blue Jays	1	2	4.44	4	24.1	4	6	13	1.20

Marc Rzepczynski
LHP, Current Team: Toronto Blue Jays

Selected by the Toronto Blue Jays in the fifth round (175th overall) of the 2007 amateur entry Draft. Over his three Big League starts, Marc has been impressive:

	W	L	ERA	GS	IP	HR	BB	SO	WHIP
Blue Jays	1	1	2.50	3	18.0	1	11	16	1.22

I'm looking forward to seeing him develop in years to come. He was ranked as the number 9 prospect by BA.

Game Scores Update: July 20, 2009

Here are the updated pitching game scores for this week.

For the Jays:

	AGSc	Chg	GS	Starts	Wk Avg
Roy Halladay	61.22	+0.99	18	1	78.00
Marc Rzepczynski	59.67	+0.17	3	1	60.00
Ricky Romero	55.86	-1.22	14	1	40.00
Scott Richmond	55.00	+0.00	13	0
Robert Ray	48.50	+0.00	4	0
Brian Tallet	48.06	+0.00	17	0
Brett Cecil	43.63	+0.00	8	0
David Purcey	41.00	+0.00	5	0
Jesse Litch	37.00	+0.00	2	0
Brad Mills	25.00	+0.00	2	0

Coming off a great effort yesterday, Halladay increases his season average by almost a point. R-zep—who got his first win of the season on Saturday against the Red So—also continues to hover around the 60 point mark. His ability to go six plus inning in his starts has been very impressive. Romero got his around pretty hard during the Jays' first game of the second half on Friday; he only went 4.1 innings, gave up 5 ER, and had a game score of only 40 to bring is season average down by over a point.

For notable pitchers in the MLB:

	Chg	Player	AGSc	Chg	GS	Starts	Wk Avg
1	+0	Dan Haren	68.26	+0.43	19	1	76.00
2	+0	Tim Lincecum	65.26	+0.37	19	1	72.00
3	+0	Zack Greinke	62.58	-0.20	19	1	59.00
4	+0	Chris Carpenter	62.57	+0.88	14	1	74.00
5	+0	Felix Hernandez	61.47	+0.53	19	1	71.00
6	+1	Roy Halladay	61.22	+0.99	18	1	78.00
7	-1	Javier Vazquez	60.79	+0.23	19	1	65.00
8	+1	Matt Cain	59.74	+0.51	19	1	69.00
9	-1	Josh Johnson	59.47	+0.00	19	0
10	+1	Justin Verlander	58.40	+0.08	20	1	60.00
11	-1	Yovani Gallardo	58.16	-0.51	19	1	49.00
12	+4	Johan Santana	57.79	+0.68	19	1	70.00
13	+2	Adam Wainwright	57.50	+0.34	20	1	64.00
14	+0	Josh Becket	57.22	+0.00	18	0
15	+3	Wandy Rodriguez	56.84	+0.51	19	1	66.00
16	+1	Jake Peavy	56.69	+0.00	13	0
17	-5	Jered Weaver	56.42	-1.75	19	1	25.00
18	+3	CC Sabathia	55.70	+0.65	20	1	68.00
19	+3	Jair Jurrjens	55.50	+0.61	20	1	67.00
20	+4	Roy Oswalt	55.45	+1.29	20	1	80.00
21	-1	Jon Lester	55.21	+0.10	19	1	57.00
22	-9	Chad Billingsley	55.15	-2.22	20	1	13.00
23	-4	Matt Garza	54.89	-0.66	19	1	43.00
24	-1	Carlos Zambrano	54.71	+0.27	17	1	59.00
25	+3	Cliff Lee	54.20	+0.88	20	1	71.00
26	+3	Joel Pineiro	54.00	+0.71	18	1	66.00
27	+0	Kevin Millwood	53.84	+0.00	19	0
28	+2	Mark Buehrle	53.58	+0.47	19	1	62.00
29	-4	A.J. Burnett	53.56	-0.56	18	1	44.00
30	+1	Nick Blackburn	53.06	+0.00	18	0
31	+2	Jason Marquis	53.00	+1.00	19	1	71.00
32	+0	Doug Davis	52.53	+0.00	19	0
33	-7	Dallas Braden	52.42	-1.58	19	1	24.00
34	+0	Ryan Dempster	51.76	+0.00	17	0
35	+0	Tim Wakefield	49.53	+0.00	17	0
36	+0	Barry Zito	48.79	+0.46	19	1	57.00
37	+2	Bronson Arroyo	48.50	+1.21	18	1	69.00
38	-1	Derek Lowe	48.35	+0.03	20	1	49.00
39	-1	Kevin Slowey	47.63	+0.00	16	0

I've highlighted the best (red) and worst (blue) position and AGSc changes in the table. Not much change at the top; positions 1-5 stay the same with Dan Haren continue his strangle hold on the lead. Halladay move up a stop to 6th. Bronson Arroyo moves out of the basement, which is now occupied by Kevin Slowey.

Update: I've added weekly AGSc columns to each table so that weekly performances can be tracked

Last week, Halladay, Harden and Oswalt both had terrific weeks, while Billingsley, Barden and Weaver were the stinkers.

Remember, game score updates will be posted every Monday.

For the love of the Jays

Alright, so this season has been a big fucking let down. I've come to that point in the season where I've lost hope for an interesting September and am thinking toward next year. This doesn't disappoint me at all; it happens ever goddamn year. Why on earth do we as fans get our hopes up in April?

The Jays are a small market team in a big market city. Toronto ranks in the top 5 for drawing numbers in the majors. In fact, the other cites in front of Toronto in this category all have two MLB ball clubs: NYY/NYM, CHC/CWS, LAD/LAA. Rogers is not interested in winning baseball games. Rogers is not interested acquiring high profile players. Rogers is interested in the bottom line—the Blue Jays are just another arm in their massive conglomerate.

Every fucking year, it's the same story: well, next year should be a lot better because... and the list of reasons always sounds good. When was the last time 'next year' was better? Next year is never any fucking better!

This year is just the same. Next year the Jays will be much better because they'll be healthy, their young arms will have another year of experience... Well, we thought that this season, didn't we?

Three Big League players are eligible for free agency after this season: Scutes, Johnny Mac, and The David Dellucci Experiment. Scutaro should get a significant raise, as he's only making $1.1M this season. However, base on his play this year, he could be classified as Class-A. In that case, I don't imagine they'll resign him, but rather take the two draft picks (seems to be par for the course over the last 8 years). Deluch is making $4M this season—I really don't have much to say about his right now. If they loose Sir John A, I don't know what I'll do.

Trade talks are swirling around Halladay, Rolen, Overbay, Wells and Rios. Certainly, it would be devastating if the Jays lost one or more of those guys (I fucking love Scott Rolen, probably more than that douche in the commercial). So what if we get a good prospect package in return. Prospects are fucking prospects; sometimes they work out, sometimes they don't.

All that said and done, I will continue to watch the Jays and cheer for the Jays and hope for the Jays and talk about the Jays and talk like we're going to be in the post-season sometime soon even if the team is sans Halladay, sans Rolen, sans Scutes Scutes Scutaro and even sans John fucking McDonald (gasp!). The Jays are the Jays. I was a little kid when they won in '92 and '93 and I'm now a fan for life. So fuck you Rogers.

Remember the glory days and don't stop believing.

TOUCH EM ALL JOE! YOU’LL NEVER HIT A BIGGER HOME RUN IN YOUR LIFE

Game Recap: Sox-Jays, Game 2

After his first two Big League starts were very repsectable, LHP Marc Rzepczynski got his first win MLB win. Yesterday's performance was similar to his other two starts: 6.0IP, 4H, 1ER, 4BB, and 4K—another quality start, keeping his QS to GS ratio at a perfect 1.000. In total he threw 109 pitches where 59 of those where for strikes; he his still struggling a little at finding the strike zone and, although he's striking batters out—8.00 K/9 over 3 three starts—his walks have gotten him into some trouble—5.50 BB/9 over his last three starts. Also, over his three starts only 58.4% of his pitches where strikes. Comparing this number to the other Jays starters, Halladay (68.7%), Tallet (60.4%), Romero (60.8%), and Richmond (60.8%), if he could get that number up a bit, he could dominate deeper into games. That being said, he's currently averaging just about 103 pitches per start, which I find to be impressive for a kid who has spent most of this time in New Hampshire this season.

Adam Lind continued his great offensive season with a homerun and a pair of RBIs. Scott Rolen had another great day at the plate going 2-3 with a walk and scored two runs. He also added another gem to his already long highlight real when he robbed JD Drew of a base hit on a liner near second (Rolen was player over in the shift). Overbay also had a good day at the plate, going 2-4 and scored once. It's slightly disturbing to me that trade rumours involving Rolen and Overbay are swirling around, especially since it seems like Boston is interested in Rolen to replace Lowell who has been struggling with injury. Hopefully Rolen didn't showcase his talent too well yesterday.

Vernon Wells sat out his second straight game with what head athletic trainer George Poulis described as violently explosive diarrhea. I really don't mind the outfield looking like Bautista-Rios-Lind, not at all. Although, Delucci has been playing good defence lately, but he injured his foot—x-rays came back negative—during the first game of the series. His bat has been absolutely attrocious though.

Today's game should be a pitching gem: Halladay versus Lester. This is the first of three starts that Halladay will probably have before the July 31st no waiver trade deadline.

Vernon Wells: and you thought his offence was bad.

The boys at Mopupduty.com show that Wells ranks worst among CF in the MLB.

Vernon’s UZR/150 (zone rating over 150 games) is an MLB CF worst -31.9. To put this into perspective a few players are tied for second down at -12ish... Wells’ fielding has cost the Jays 21.3 runs vs an average fielder this season. This is second worst in the MLB, only -0.3 less than Adam Dunn’s -21.6 fielding runs.

My fucking God! Sweet fucking Jesus! Adam Dunn?

Christ.

The article is worth a read.



Update: Thanks to FanGraphs, I've tracked down the complete fielding number for CFs in the MLB:

Team	UZR/150
Blue Jays	-29.6
Braves	-13.2
Orioles	-12.8
Phillies	-12.4
Indians	-11.5
Nationals	-10.4
Red Sox	-9.7
Mets	-8.3
Diamondbacks	-6.9
Astros	-4.8
Rockies	-4.1
Angels	-4.1
Twins	-3.2
Cubs	0.7
Pirates	1.7
Tigers	1.7
Marlins	1.8
Rays	3.4
Padres	4.1
Brewers	5.9
White Sox	7
Rangers	7.7
Giants	8
Reds	8.8
Dodgers	10.5
Yankees	10.9
Royals	11.1
Athletics	14.3
Cardinals	21
Mariners	21.3

For all CF, the average UZR/150 is +0.3. Vernon Wells carries a z-score of -2.66; statistically he performs much worse than the average CF.

Shawn Marcum AA rehab start

This is very good news, indeed.

Shawn Marcum made the start last night in a AA pitching duel between the Fisher Cats and the Connecticut Defenders. The Cats whet on to win 1-0 (boxscore). Marcum himself had a very solid outting:

	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	ERA
Marcum	4.2	3	0	0	2	4	0	0.00

Although he only pitched 4.2, he only gave up three hits on 19 batters faced.

Before this start, Marcum had made two rehab starts with Dunedin, only going a total of 6 innings over both. The Jays are slowly testing his arm; the fact that he only made two starts in HiA before going up to AA might mean that we could see him in the Big Leagues this season.

Since '05 Marcum's fastball has fallen from an average of 89.4 mph to 86.8 last year. Hopefully, in enough time, he can touch 90mph again

Vernon Wells: by the numbers

Vernon Wells has under produced this season—plain and simple. In December of '06, the club signed him to a huge extension worth $126M over 7 years; at the time it was the 7th largest contract in MLB history. Details of the contract break down as follows:

Year	Salary ($M)
2009	10
2010	21
2011	23
2012	21
2013	21
2014	21

There are also performance bonuses:

250K	MVP
200K	World Series MVP
150K	ALCS MVP
100K	Most votes in all-star balloting

The contract also includes a full no-trade clause and Wells has the option of opting out after the 2011 season (not bloody likely at this rate).

Offensively, Vernon Wells is in the lineup to produce runs, and this is something that he has not done. Through 84 games, he has hit just .167 (15-90) with runners in scoring position, has only 9 dingers and 38 RBIs. Wells is also struggling when he is down in the count, hitting only .205 with two strikes—he loves to chase that slider down and away and every pitcher seems to throw it at him. Wells' struggle reached a unprecedented level when Cito—the stingiest litmus test for loosing confidence in a hitter—moved him from the cleanup spot to 6th in the lineup.

I'd like to push my frustrations to the side and take a purely objective view of Wells' production this season and compare him to the other CFs in the league. The only way to do this is using number: statistics and sabermetrics. Good thing I love numbers. Here's a list of the qualified CFs this year, sorted based on 2009 salary:

RK	PLAYER	TEAM	HR	RBI	BA	OPS	RC	BB/K	Salary
1	Carlos Beltran	NYM	8	40	0.336	0.952	53.2	1.09	19,243,682
2	Torii Hunter	LAA	17	65	0.305	0.938	59.2	0.65	18,000,000
3	Kosuke Fukudome	CHC	7	27	0.26	0.811	41.7	0.87	12,500,000
4	Vernon Wells	TOR	9	38	0.261	0.721	46.1	0.64	10,000,000
5	Mike Cameron	MIL	14	41	0.259	0.84	50.6	0.62	10,000,000
6	Aaron Rowand	SFO	9	40	0.293	0.819	47.3	0.3	9,600,000
7	Grady Sizemore	CLE	13	47	0.229	0.768	38.3	0.54	4,766,666
8	Curtis Granderson	DET	18	43	0.254	0.794	54.9	0.58	3,500,000
9	Shane Victorino	PHI	6	42	0.314	0.851	63.4	0.9	3,125,000
10	Marlon Byrd	TEX	8	44	0.283	0.799	42	0.34	3,060,000
11	Nate McLouth	ATL/PIT	14	49	0.267	0.817	49.9	0.61	2,500,000
12	Cody Ross	FLA	14	49	0.278	0.833	48	0.33	2,225,000
13	Chris Young	ARI	6	25	0.198	0.661	29.8	0.44	1,950,000
14	Willy Taveras	CIN	1	11	0.238	0.575	25	0.36	1,500,000
15	Melky Cabrera	NYY	8	33	0.278	0.771	35.3	0.67	1,400,000
16	Matt Kemp	LAD	11	50	0.324	0.892	62	0.46	467,000
17	Franklin Gutierrez	SEA	10	37	0.297	0.809	42.9	0.43	455,000
18	Jacoby Ellsbury	BOS	5	28	0.301	0.755	50.9	0.69	449,500
19	B.J. Upton	TAM	7	33	0.246	0.721	47.2	0.45	435,000
20	Adam Jones	BAL	12	47	0.308	0.851	53.8	0.34	435,000
21	Michael Bourn	HOU	3	25	0.289	0.775	53.7	0.53	434,500
22	Ryan Sweeney	OAK	3	21	0.269	0.675	27	0.53	414,000
23	Dexter Fowler	COL	3	21	0.256	0.732	40.7	0.58	401,000
24	Colby Rasmus	STL	11	34	0.281	0.815	40.9	0.29	400,000

Most headings in the above should be familiar expect maybe for a couple: OPS (On-base plus slugging) which measures a player's ability to get on base and hit for powers; and RC (Runs created) which is an estimate of the number of runs a player contributes to his team. The modern formula takes many statistics into account, and is quite accurate (usually within %5) of the actual number.

Wells ranks as the 4th highest paid CF in the Bigs, with Beltran well in the lead and a relatively large grouping of players at the bottom end making less then $1M. The average salary for Big League CFs is $4,25M; Wells is over double that this year.

What's interesting to observe is the trend in salary:


The above plot shows CFs (ranked from lowest paid to highest paid) and their salaries. The results was not all that surprising for me: the trend was clearly exponential—the solid red line shows an exponential fit to the data points (For those number junkies, the actual trend line follows the function,

Salary = (149121)(exp{[rank]/4.89}) - 38885

If you don't understand what that means, then you're not a number junkie).

Basically, what the trend line shows is what a CF should make based on his salary rank. Points on the red line indicate that a player is making what he should for his rank, dots to the left of the line indicate that a player is making more than he should based on the trend, and dots on the right of the line indicate that a player is making less than he should based on the trend. Take a look at Wells (highlighted in blue): he is to the left of the line and thus is currently making more than the trend for CFs.

Here's where Wells ranks in all the above stats:

	HR	RBI	BA	OPS	RC	BB/K	Salary
Rank	12	13	16	20	14	7	4

One could make the fair assumption that if Vernon is making the 4th highest CF salary, then he should rank around 4th in all categories. He clearly does not. In fact, he ranks well below 4th in all stats that I've shown.

However, since the trend in salaries is not linear, maybe it's unfair to look at these statistics in a purely linear sense. Well, for this we need slightly more intense statistics (don't worry, this won't be too rough): z-score. Basically the z-score quantifies how a number compares to the average (technically it is the number of standard deviations from the mean); a high z-score means that a value is much higher than the average, and a very negative z-score means that a number is well below the average. Here are Wells' z-scores:

	HR	RBI	BA	OPS	RC	BB/K	Salary
Wells	-0.01	0.08	-0.47	-0.82	0.01	0.44	0.98

Wells has a salary much above the average (z-score of 0.98) for CFs. One would would then hope that his performance in statistical categories is about this z-score as well. It is not. He is near average in 3 of 6 statistical categories (HR, RBI, RC). He's above average in only BB/K. The bad new is that he's well below the average in BA and OPS: two massively important categories for someone who the Jays reply on for his ability to get on base and drive runs in.

Compare these numbers to Beltran's:

	HR	RBI	BA	OPS	RC	BB/K	Salary
Beltran	-0.23	0.24	1.89	1.91	0.71	2.68	2.71

Compared to the average salary for CFs ($4.25M), Beltran makes a shitload more ($19.24M), which is represented by the high z-score in that category (2.71). However, as opposed to Wells, Beltran also has high z-scores in RBI, BA, OPS, RC and BB/K; not quite 2.71 in those categories, but they're up there.

What does this all mean?

Well, according to the salary trend for this year, Vernon is overpaid for his rank. He also ranks below his salary rank in all 6 categories. Using a statistical approach, Wells is under performing; his z-scores rank below his salary in all 6 categories.

Now, let's remember that this is based on this 2009 salary. That all goes even more to shit when you consider he'll make $21M next year, then $23M the year after that. Oh, but there is hope the he might opt-out of his clearly inflated contract in 2011? Not a chance at this rate.

Conclusion: Vernon Wells is more of a fucking useless piece of shit than I thought. Numbers don't lie.

The only bright spot in a potential Halladay trade would be if they could package Wells and his ridiculous (or maybe even half) contract.

Game Recap: Jays-Orioles, Game 3.

The Jays suffered another disappointing loss yesterday to the fucking Orioles; they lost the series 1-2 and go into the all-star break two games below .500 at (44-46). With a win by the Red Sox, the Jays now fall to 11.0 GB in the ALE: below the Medosa Line I created for myself last week.

That's it. I've officially lost hope on this season. Let's now all pray that JP doesn't completely fuck all hopes for next season. With all of these trade rumors about Halladay floating around, who knows what will happen. Am I against the Jays trading away the number one pitcher in baseball? Absolutely not. Although Halladay is signed through next season, I ask myself, what is the probability that we get to resign him past 2010? Not good. If that's the case, we might as well get some damn good tier fucking A+++++ prospects that are damn well near Major League ready.

It hurts me to think of Halladay in any uniform other than the Jays', but this is 'big picture' stuff. Do they Jays have a chance at the post season next year? Somewhat. With all these young arms coming back from the DL (Marcum, McGowan, Litch), other young arms who have proven that they at least deserve a shot at a legitimate spot in the Bigs (Romero, Rzepczynski, Ray), consistency might be a big issue next year; I'd put their chances of the playoffs in 2010 somewhere around 20-30% and that's with Roy. So, do we keep him around and probably loose him about the '10 season, or do we deal him when he's ripe for the pickin' and get something good in return? I tend toward the latter, but we better get an unbelievable package in return.

I think all Jays' fans are going to have to come to terms with one obvious fact: we will not get fair value for Halladay, in a strict linear dollar-for-dollar sense. No team has or would be willing to give up the number of prospects and players that would equal to Roy's true value (this article explains this concept quite well). In my opinion, something really good—not excellent, as what Halliday would be truly worth—is better than nothing.

Back to yesterday's game and a more positive note. Rzepczynski had another very good start. Here's the line on his outing:

IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	GSc	DEC	ERA
6	5	3	3	1	3	5	52	L(0-1)	3.00

He's now 2-2 for Quality Starts, but unfortunately his record is 0-1 as the bats just haven't been there to back him up. He still struggled a bit with control with a pitches-strikes count of 94-59, which is marginally better than his first outing. If Mark can find the strike zone a little more, he'd be able to go longer into games, produce less walks (which have gotten him into trouble in both his outings), and probably produce a few more Ks. Take a look at the graph to the left; it shows the position of all balls, strikes and hits. There seems to be a lot of scatter on the left-hand side. The outing produced another respectable Game Score of 52.

This all looks very promising.

Game Scores Update: July 12. 2009

I'll be updating my game score calculations every Monday. I've added a few headings to my database which will track changes in Average Game Score (Chg AGSc) and Position, along with the number of starts a pitcher made in the week (starts). Today, no changes will be recorded (using today as the first entry).

Here's what we got. For the Jays' staff,

	AGSc	Chg	Starts	GS
Roy Halladay	60.24	+0.00	0	17
Marc Rzepczynski	59.50	+0.00	0	2
Ricky Romero	57.08	+0.00	0	13
Scott Richmond	55.00	+0.00	0	13
Robert Ray	48.50	+0.00	0	4
Brian Tallet	48.06	+0.00	0	17
Brett Cecil	43.63	+0.00	0	8
David Purcey	41.00	+0.00	0	5
Jesse Litch	37.00	+0.00	0	2
Brad Mills	25.00	+0.00	0	2

Rzepczynski, with a good start yesterday still remains high on the list, but with only 2 total starts. Halladay—even going winless since his return from the DL—remains at the top. Romero having pitched really well over the past month is sitting with a very respectable 57.

For notable pitchers in the MLB,

	Chg		AGSc	Chg	GS	Starts
1	+0	Dan Haren	67.83	+0.00	18	0
2	+0	Tim Lincecum	64.89	+0.00	18	0
3	+0	Zack Greinke	62.78	+0.00	18	0
4	+0	Chris Carpenter	61.69	+0.00	13	0
5	+0	Felix Hernandez	60.94	+0.00	18	0
6	+0	Javier Vazquez	60.56	+0.00	18	0
7	+0	Roy Halladay	60.24	+0.00	17	0
8	+0	Josh Johnson	59.47	+0.00	19	0
9	+0	Matt Cain	59.22	+0.00	18	0
10	+0	Yovani Gallardo	58.67	+0.00	18	0
11	+0	Justin Verlander	58.32	+0.00	19	0
12	+0	Jered Weaver	58.17	+0.00	18	0
13	+0	Chad Billingsley	57.37	+0.00	19	0
14	+0	Josh Becket	57.22	+0.00	18	0
15	+0	Adam Wainwright	57.16	+0.00	19	0
16	+0	Johan Santana	57.11	+0.00	18	0
17	+0	Jake Peavy	56.69	+0.00	13	0
18	+0	Wandy Rodriguez	56.33	+0.00	18	0
19	+0	Jon Lester	55.11	+0.00	18	0
20	+0	CC Sabathia	55.05	+0.00	19	0
21	+0	Jair Jurrjens	54.89	+0.00	19	0
22	+0	Carlos Zambrano	54.44	+0.00	16	0
23	+0	Roy Oswalt	54.16	+0.00	19	0
24	+0	A.J. Burnett	54.12	+0.00	17	0
25	+0	Dallas Braden	54.00	+0.00	18	0
26	+0	Kevin Millwood	53.84	+0.00	19	0
27	+0	Cliff Lee	53.32	+0.00	19	0
28	+0	Joel Pineiro	53.29	+0.00	17	0
29	+0	Mark Buehrle	53.11	+0.00	18	0
30	+0	Nick Blackburn	53.06	+0.00	18	0
31	+0	Doug Davis	52.53	+0.00	19	0
32	+0	Jason Marquis	52.00	+0.00	18	0
33	+0	Ryan Dempster	51.76	+0.00	17	0
34	+0	Tim Wakefield	49.53	+0.00	17	0
35	+0	Barry Zito	48.33	+0.00	18	0
36	+0	Derek Lowe	48.32	+0.00	19	0
37	+0	Kevin Slowey	47.63	+0.00	16	0
38	+0	Bronson Arroyo	47.29	+0.00	17	0

Cheers.

(Again, if there are any pitchers that you'd like to see added to the above list, just let me know.)