On the League trade.

Sometimes brilliant, sometimes very frustrating reliever for a young sometimes brilliant, sometimes very frustrating starter; both are fireballers. Obviously, this deal is too heavily weighted in the Jays' favour to not have another player involved: a prospect. Consensus now seems to be that the prospect is Johermyn Chavez. Cringe. This doesn't sit well with me—although it does sit a lot better than the delusion of some Mariner fans believing that we'd actually deal Wallace, Snider, Stewart, or Lind. The nerve!—I was looking forward to Chavez: The kid is young, and he plays a position that seems to be a deep dark void in the organization.

Yeah yeah, he repeated Low-A last year. The kid was 20 years old and he put up decent numbers at the plate during his mulligan year: He posted a wOBA of .371, a ISO of .191, and a .346 OBP; the kid hits for decent power and gets on base. He could certainly improve on his 7.3% BB rate and 27% K rate. He's young and needs polishing—of course. But I'd certainly take a 20% K rate if his ISO was .200+. All in all, he's a RF/LF prospect. Enough said.

A quick look at Brandon Morrow. He's projected to be a number 3 guy. He's hard throwing: his fast ball sits at around 95mph. He's got control issues and sometimes has trouble with his curve. He spend time in both AAA and the MLB last year playing in 10 (starting all 10) and 26 (starting 10) games respectively. His numbers weren't spectacular with Seattle: His tRA was 5.54 (a tRA of 3.00 would be considered very good), and his xFIP was 4.89 (again an xFIP of 3.00 would be considered elite for a starter). He averaged a nice 8.14 K/9 in the MLB last year, but also recorded a 5.68 BB/9.

So, why Morrow. Simple: (i) He's major league ready and can eat innings; (ii) He does have potential; and (iii) We might one day see him as a setup/closer type in the bullpen. Personally, I still think hanging on to Chavez would have been better; there must have been another Hi-A prospect? Is the pantry that bare?

Mat at Blue Jays Daze postulates what the rotation could be like in 2010:

1 - Ricky Romero (25): stats for 2009, 29 GS, 178 IP, 141 Ks, 4.30 ERA, 1.522 Whip (14 IP in minors)

2 - Shaun Marcum (28): stats for 2009, did not pitch due to injury (15 IP in minors as rehab)

3 - Brett Cecil (22): stats for 2009, 17 GS, 93.1 IP, 69 Ks, 5.30 ERA, 1.650 Whip (49 IP in minors)

4 - Brandon Morrow (25): stats for 2009, 10 GS, 69.2 IP, 63 Ks, 4.39 ERA, 1.579 Whip (55 IP in minors)

5 - Marc Rzepczynski (24): stats for 2009, 11 GS, 61.1 IP, 60 Ks, 3.67 ERA, 1.321 Whip (88 IP in minors)

Zack Stewart could be ready to see some action next year, and look forward to Kyle Drabek in 2011. The above rotation also leaves Scott Richmond out, and he could find a good home in the pen—frankly, he's probably better there. Best case for Jesse Litch is July-August, which might be perfect timing when innings begin to be a problem for the young arms. And, of course, there's also the Dustin McGowan mystery. A little further down the line we also have Reidier Gonzalez and Luis Perez.

Hopefully the pitchers who are going to be established parts of moving forward will make a strong case by the 2012 season. In the meantime, won't it be fun to watch it all unfold?

On Drabek and a few other tidbits...

At the beginning of last year, people were saying number two or three starter in Drabek, but 2009 was a big year for him; it was his first year back from Tommy John's. Drabek had a very good 2009: his ERA was a little up, but his K:BB ratio was a very commanding 3.5:1. I heard something today that said he strikes out something like 30% of batters that he faces. He's got great command of his fastball, but his K pitch is a hard bitting 12-6 curve. He's currently working on a change up, which would be the final piece to make him a 4-pitch starter: fastball +, curve +, slider, change up (still young so could be a 4-plus pitcher). After his season last year, people are saying that his ceiling is very high. This will be his second season back from TJ surgery, so theoretically he should have his power back. He'll be starting in AA. Baseball America (one of the top prospect people) call him the number one prospect in the system.

Also, don't forget about Zach Stewart—remember him, we got him in the Rolan deal. He's supposed to be a pretty good young arm too. He has a chance to make the team out of spring training, but he's still young, so another year in AAA wouldn't hurt. According to BA, Stewart is the number 2 pitcher in the system, and sits about 4th overall.

Another really interesting thing that I heard today concerned scouting. One of the first thing that AA did when he came to power was to almost immediately increase the number of scouts in the organization—in fact, they about doubled the number of both professional and amateur scouts in the system. Did not know that. Actually, it was also said that under JP, the Jays ceased to scout high-schoolers... go figure.

BA is set to release their annual Prospect Handbook (I'm probably going to pick up a copy). They have Drabek ranked number one and Wallace ranked number two (I think they have d'Arnaud somewhere 6-7ish, but don't quote me yet). So, for Halladay we got two prospects better than anything we had before. Guess who they have third: our boy Arencibia. He's ranked higher than d'Arnaud because he's more advanced in development than d'Arnaud.

One more thing, I also heard that Wallace has a good chance of making the team out of spring training if there's no one blocking him at first base—ahem Overbay.

The Halladay Saga...

We're now two days from Riccardi's imposed "Jays Line" and I'm really not sure what to think: Will Halladay get traded? Will he stay in Toronto for the duration of his contract? Is it possible that he'll resign after 2010? I thought I had a firm grasp of these answers in my own mind on Thursday. By the way things were sounding from all sources—J.P., Beaston, pretty much every baseball writer, bloggers, the whole damn baseball nation—I thought Doc was a goner for sure. I watched his start on Friday like it was going to be his last. When he walked off the mount in the bottom of the ninth to a huge ovation from the crowd, a feeling of sadness sweep over me; how could I see The Doctor not in a Jays uniform?

My feelings prior to Friday were if the Jays could get a spectacular package of MLB ready or close to ready prospects, they had to make the deal; I didn't think Halladay had any chance of resigning with the team. Halladay is certainly worth more than the two compensation picks the Jays would get if they lost him on the free agent market.

Friday's game just had the feeling of it being Halladay's last. I think this was in everybody's mind—both fans and players.

In a very uncharacteristic move for Roy, he sat down with the media for 20 minutes after his start. Reading the various transcripts of this interview gave me the feeling that he didn't want to leave. Here are a few tidbits

Do you believe you'll be here past Aug. 1?

Right now, yeah, I think I will be here. It's obviously a complicated situation, and for that reason I've never felt like there's been a big press on being moved, or wanting to be moved. I think for that reason, I think it's more of an ideal situation-type thing for the Blue Jays, and for myself. If there was an urgency to be somewhere else, and an urgency from the team to have me somewhere else, I think it would be different. I just don't get that feeling, so for that reason, I think that at this point, I feel like I'm going to be here. ...

I've always felt that I just don't have that urgency ... it's hard, because it is such a great place, and I've enjoyed being here so much, I don't feel like I'm really trying to go somewhere else. And I think just for that reason, on both sides, I don't think there's that urgency. That's just a gut feeling.

Did you tell the Blue Jays that you intend to test the free-agent market?

Yeah, I don't think necessarily in those words. For me, I like being here — whether we have a chance to win next year or the year after, I don't know. I would hope so, but for me it was more I would like to wait and see. I don't feel like I want to test [free agency] — it has nothing to do what I might get elsewhere. It has to do with I don't have a crystal ball, I don't know 100% what's going to lay in store here or somewhere else. And for me, I feel like it's just something that I don't want to look that far in the future right now. I think I would rather assess the situation when the contract's up. Again, I don't feel like I'm trying to go somewhere else. Just at this point, I would like to wait and see what's going to happen. Where's the best place to win? It could be here. It might be here. But I just don't have that crystal ball. I can't see that far in advance. And I feel like the Blue Jays have given me an opportunity to take care of my family, fulfill some of those obligations. And I think for myself, knowing that window's getting shorter, to have that chance to win, I want to make that decision knowing everything that's out there.

Did you get a chance to talk to [interim president] Paul Beeston, and did he say anything that makes you more eager to stay, or more likely to stay?

Well, I definitely feel like there's a plan in place. I feel like it's an organization that's trying to move forward, that's trying to get better. So from that aspect of it, I think there's a lot to look forward to here. But again, I think for me, it's just more of a wait-and-see. But I know Paul's done a great job. I have a lot of confidence in [general manager] J.P. [Ricciardi]. I think that the time that I've been here, he's done the best that he can to put the best team out there ... there's a lot to look forward to here. I just think I owe it to myself to kind of wait and see, and assess the situation when I have to. But I do feel like there's a lot of positives.

Does this team need major changes to win?

Major changes? No. I think the hardest part is obviously the division we're in. The two, three, four teams you're up against, two of them they can go get guys when they need them. That's the hardest part. So I don't think it's major changes — I think at some point, you need to catch lightning in a bottle. A lot of things have to go right, kind of what happened for Tampa last year. I feel like a lot of those pieces are in place, a lot of the future's there. It's just a matter of [whether it] will all come together. I personally don't believe there's major changes — I think that things are going in the right direction.

Just to clarify, you said you didn't say in so many words that you were going to test the market. Is the message that if you didn't think at that time the Blue Jays weren't ready to contend, you would test the market? Can you clarify that?

Basically all I'm saying is it's not testing the free-agent waters, it's getting to that point and seeing whether we as an organization are close. So if not ... maybe I need to look at my best chance to win. But for me it's not I want to leave, I want to go somewhere else. It's I think you're going in the right direction, but I would really like to see how close we are at that point, and make the best decision at that point. Does that help? ...

I told them I would like to wait until my contract's up to make the best decision ... As soon as they say we're interested in maybe seeing what's out there, and are you interested, I think at that point there has to be a little bit of rope. If this is what you're looking for, this is what I'm looking for. And basically, that's all it is. I don't think at that point, you sit down and [offer] a list of six team you want to go to. I think for me, it was important to make clear what I wanted to accomplish, and where I'm coming from. And I think that was important. ...

It's not I want to go somewhere else, I want to play somewhere else. I really feel like — I've fulfilled a lot of obligations, and I think you have to be, at some point, a little selfish in what you want ... I love it here, I want to stay, and I really do hope it's here. But I think for me, I've taken care of my obligations, and I feel like I would hate to look back and regret that I had this three- or four-year window and I didn't take a chance to give myself the best opportunity. And that's really all I'm trying to do, whether it's here or somewhere else.


So, in summary,

• Halladay himself believes he'll be a Jay past August 1st. In the very least, he wants to asses the situation after his contract is up.


• He doesn't believe the team needs any major changes to win and feels the team has the right pieces in place and a good future.


• He doesn't want to leave; he wants to win a championship here.

The best pitcher in baseball is telling the organization to open their fucking wallets up and bring the last few needed pieces over to make the team a contender. I just don't know what will happen now. Of the potential teams out there looking at Halladay, the Phillies are said to be the front runners. The last package on the table was J.A. Happ and Kyle Drabek, along with outfield prospect Dominic Brown.

With Happ, the Jays would receive a top quality young mlb pitcher to partially fill the void left if Halladay were to leave. Drabek is having a great year in A+ and AA, but for a 21 year old, he's already had Tommy John surgery; he's considered to be the gem of the trade. Brown is rated as the number 48 top prospect by Baseball America, and his eta in the mlb is 2011; he'll be 21 at that time. The Jays also asked for Joe Saunders, Brandon Wood, Erick Aybar, and one prospect from the group of Trevor Reckling, Peter Bourjos, and Sean O'Sullivan from the Angels.

With all this conjecture floating around, it's impossible now to tell heads from tails on which teams are seriously interested and what players are being offered. With the deadline only a few days away now, it won't be long before we know for sure. As of this moment in time, my heart is telling me that Roy will stay in Toronto—at least for now.

Hey, and if Rios and Wells continue to turn their seasons around, who knows what could happen next year. We've got all that pitching coming back... oh, we've gone down this road before.

Let's watch our young pitching prospect, Brett Cecil, kick some serious ass today in the Dome.

What if "The Trade" happens?

Rather than talk about the Roy Halladay trade itself—that's been done to death—I'd like to give my thoughts on what might happen to the Jays assuming that the trade does happen.

Riccardi has set the "Jays Line" for July 28; if a trade doesn't happen by then, no trade will happen. Although, now JP is saying this is more of a soft line than a hard line. It's clear to me that JP wants to give himself a few days to get things done if Halladay leaves—I really think he'll be selling the farm. I'd love to see Wells go, but let's be honest here: no one is going to take that botched abortion. I still have have faith in Rios, his numbers are well below where they should be this year, but I'm not ready to call it quits on him just yet; Rios plays with heart, VDub doesn't. I just wish Rios wouldn't yell at little kids trying to get his autograph.

What scares me is that Rolen might also go if Halladay is traded. Rolen is making $11M this year, and he's set to make the same next year. Rolen is also a machine built in the future and sent back in time to completely dominate the game on the hot corner. Unfortunately, he just doesn't make sense on a post-Halladay. There are a few teams interested in Rolen (Red Sox, Dodgers, read somewhere the Phillies might be interested) but maybe few will be willing to pay his salary, and apparently Anthopoulos is saying that the Jays plan on keeping him through 2010.

Marco Scutaro is another big question. He's only making $1.1M this season, and set to be a free agent at the end of the year; you can expect he'll be getting a big raise. With the numbers he's been posting this year, it's looking more and more likely that Scutes could be classified as Type-A, and Riccardi damn well knows that; he knows he'll probably get a first round and sandwich pick if they don't resign him at the end of the season. However, in the days between the "Jays Line" and the deadline, if he's offered better compensation for Scutaro, he's likely to go.

Scutaro has been quite a pleasant surprise this year. He's posted great numbers, both offensively and defensively: Defensively, for all SS, Marco is tied for third in UZR/150, and is leading the position with a 0.993 fielding percentage; offensively, among SS, Marco sits in 7th with an of .378 OBP, 4th with wOBA of 0.357, 4th with a wRC of 66, and his BB/K of 1.36 puts him well ahead of second place Derek Jeter 0.88.

A heart to match his 7 gloves.

I was working last night, so I didn't get a chance to see much of last night's disappointment live—I did strategically position myself to catch the last few innings. One of the first plays that I did see was Rolen's solo shot to centre field. Take a look at the clip. Notice that Rolen sprints around the basebads; he doesn't take is precious time; he doesn't stand and watch his ball leave the park; from the moment that the ball leaves his bat, Scott Rolen hustles.

Scott Rolen has traits that many big leaguers don't have (Vernon Wells for example): integrity, heart, and is a true professional. I'd be more disappointed in a Scott Rolen trade at the deadline than a Halladay trade. With a Halladay trade—at least from what JP has been saying—we're going to get a spectacular package of youngster, or the trade doesn't happen. In a Scott Rolen trade, we might get a guy 1/2 as good on 3B and maybe a B-list prospect.

What agravates me even more is that the Red Sox are looking hard at Rolen. Could you imagine a trade to Boston where we get that useless piece-of-shit Mike Lowel and some other clown?

If Halladay does go by the "Jays Line" set for July 28th, it's probably likely that Rolen is a part of the deal, or that the Jays make a trade in the days that follow which could involve Rolen and/or Over-gay.