Game Recap: Jays-Orioles, Game 3.

The Jays suffered another disappointing loss yesterday to the fucking Orioles; they lost the series 1-2 and go into the all-star break two games below .500 at (44-46). With a win by the Red Sox, the Jays now fall to 11.0 GB in the ALE: below the Medosa Line I created for myself last week.

That's it. I've officially lost hope on this season. Let's now all pray that JP doesn't completely fuck all hopes for next season. With all of these trade rumors about Halladay floating around, who knows what will happen. Am I against the Jays trading away the number one pitcher in baseball? Absolutely not. Although Halladay is signed through next season, I ask myself, what is the probability that we get to resign him past 2010? Not good. If that's the case, we might as well get some damn good tier fucking A+++++ prospects that are damn well near Major League ready.

It hurts me to think of Halladay in any uniform other than the Jays', but this is 'big picture' stuff. Do they Jays have a chance at the post season next year? Somewhat. With all these young arms coming back from the DL (Marcum, McGowan, Litch), other young arms who have proven that they at least deserve a shot at a legitimate spot in the Bigs (Romero, Rzepczynski, Ray), consistency might be a big issue next year; I'd put their chances of the playoffs in 2010 somewhere around 20-30% and that's with Roy. So, do we keep him around and probably loose him about the '10 season, or do we deal him when he's ripe for the pickin' and get something good in return? I tend toward the latter, but we better get an unbelievable package in return.

I think all Jays' fans are going to have to come to terms with one obvious fact: we will not get fair value for Halladay, in a strict linear dollar-for-dollar sense. No team has or would be willing to give up the number of prospects and players that would equal to Roy's true value (this article explains this concept quite well). In my opinion, something really good—not excellent, as what Halliday would be truly worth—is better than nothing.

Back to yesterday's game and a more positive note. Rzepczynski had another very good start. Here's the line on his outing:

6 5 3 3 1 3 5 52 L(0-1) 3.00

He's now 2-2 for Quality Starts, but unfortunately his record is 0-1 as the bats just haven't been there to back him up. He still struggled a bit with control with a pitches-strikes count of 94-59, which is marginally better than his first outing. If Mark can find the strike zone a little more, he'd be able to go longer into games, produce less walks (which have gotten him into trouble in both his outings), and probably produce a few more Ks. Take a look at the graph to the left; it shows the position of all balls, strikes and hits. There seems to be a lot of scatter on the left-hand side. The outing produced another respectable Game Score of 52.

This all looks very promising.


Joseph van der Jagt July 14, 2009 at 12:13 PM  

Possible fair trades for Halladay:

Best two AAA prospects in Boston
Jason Bay

Holy Ghost

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