Game Recap: Jays-Orioles, Game 3.

The Jays suffered another disappointing loss yesterday to the fucking Orioles; they lost the series 1-2 and go into the all-star break two games below .500 at (44-46). With a win by the Red Sox, the Jays now fall to 11.0 GB in the ALE: below the Medosa Line I created for myself last week.

That's it. I've officially lost hope on this season. Let's now all pray that JP doesn't completely fuck all hopes for next season. With all of these trade rumors about Halladay floating around, who knows what will happen. Am I against the Jays trading away the number one pitcher in baseball? Absolutely not. Although Halladay is signed through next season, I ask myself, what is the probability that we get to resign him past 2010? Not good. If that's the case, we might as well get some damn good tier fucking A+++++ prospects that are damn well near Major League ready.

It hurts me to think of Halladay in any uniform other than the Jays', but this is 'big picture' stuff. Do they Jays have a chance at the post season next year? Somewhat. With all these young arms coming back from the DL (Marcum, McGowan, Litch), other young arms who have proven that they at least deserve a shot at a legitimate spot in the Bigs (Romero, Rzepczynski, Ray), consistency might be a big issue next year; I'd put their chances of the playoffs in 2010 somewhere around 20-30% and that's with Roy. So, do we keep him around and probably loose him about the '10 season, or do we deal him when he's ripe for the pickin' and get something good in return? I tend toward the latter, but we better get an unbelievable package in return.

I think all Jays' fans are going to have to come to terms with one obvious fact: we will not get fair value for Halladay, in a strict linear dollar-for-dollar sense. No team has or would be willing to give up the number of prospects and players that would equal to Roy's true value (this article explains this concept quite well). In my opinion, something really good—not excellent, as what Halliday would be truly worth—is better than nothing.

Back to yesterday's game and a more positive note. Rzepczynski had another very good start. Here's the line on his outing:

IP H R ER HR BB SO GSc DEC ERA
6 5 3 3 1 3 5 52 L(0-1) 3.00


He's now 2-2 for Quality Starts, but unfortunately his record is 0-1 as the bats just haven't been there to back him up. He still struggled a bit with control with a pitches-strikes count of 94-59, which is marginally better than his first outing. If Mark can find the strike zone a little more, he'd be able to go longer into games, produce less walks (which have gotten him into trouble in both his outings), and probably produce a few more Ks. Take a look at the graph to the left; it shows the position of all balls, strikes and hits. There seems to be a lot of scatter on the left-hand side. The outing produced another respectable Game Score of 52.

This all looks very promising.

Game Scores Update: July 12. 2009

I'll be updating my game score calculations every Monday. I've added a few headings to my database which will track changes in Average Game Score (Chg AGSc) and Position, along with the number of starts a pitcher made in the week (starts). Today, no changes will be recorded (using today as the first entry).

Here's what we got. For the Jays' staff,


AGSc Chg Starts GS
Roy Halladay 60.24 +0.00 0 17
Marc Rzepczynski 59.50 +0.00 0 2
Ricky Romero 57.08 +0.00 0 13
Scott Richmond 55.00 +0.00 0 13
Robert Ray 48.50 +0.00 0 4
Brian Tallet 48.06 +0.00 0 17
Brett Cecil 43.63 +0.00 0 8
David Purcey 41.00 +0.00 0 5
Jesse Litch 37.00 +0.00 0 2
Brad Mills 25.00 +0.00 0 2

Rzepczynski, with a good start yesterday still remains high on the list, but with only 2 total starts. Halladay—even going winless since his return from the DL—remains at the top. Romero having pitched really well over the past month is sitting with a very respectable 57.

For notable pitchers in the MLB,


Chg
AGSc Chg GS Starts
1 +0 Dan Haren 67.83 +0.00 18 0
2 +0 Tim Lincecum 64.89 +0.00 18 0
3 +0 Zack Greinke 62.78 +0.00 18 0
4 +0 Chris Carpenter 61.69 +0.00 13 0
5 +0 Felix Hernandez 60.94 +0.00 18 0
6 +0 Javier Vazquez 60.56 +0.00 18 0
7 +0 Roy Halladay 60.24 +0.00 17 0
8 +0 Josh Johnson 59.47 +0.00 19 0
9 +0 Matt Cain 59.22 +0.00 18 0
10 +0 Yovani Gallardo 58.67 +0.00 18 0
11 +0 Justin Verlander 58.32 +0.00 19 0
12 +0 Jered Weaver 58.17 +0.00 18 0
13 +0 Chad Billingsley 57.37 +0.00 19 0
14 +0 Josh Becket 57.22 +0.00 18 0
15 +0 Adam Wainwright 57.16 +0.00 19 0
16 +0 Johan Santana 57.11 +0.00 18 0
17 +0 Jake Peavy 56.69 +0.00 13 0
18 +0 Wandy Rodriguez 56.33 +0.00 18 0
19 +0 Jon Lester 55.11 +0.00 18 0
20 +0 CC Sabathia 55.05 +0.00 19 0
21 +0 Jair Jurrjens 54.89 +0.00 19 0
22 +0 Carlos Zambrano 54.44 +0.00 16 0
23 +0 Roy Oswalt 54.16 +0.00 19 0
24 +0 A.J. Burnett 54.12 +0.00 17 0
25 +0 Dallas Braden 54.00 +0.00 18 0
26 +0 Kevin Millwood 53.84 +0.00 19 0
27 +0 Cliff Lee 53.32 +0.00 19 0
28 +0 Joel Pineiro 53.29 +0.00 17 0
29 +0 Mark Buehrle 53.11 +0.00 18 0
30 +0 Nick Blackburn 53.06 +0.00 18 0
31 +0 Doug Davis 52.53 +0.00 19 0
32 +0 Jason Marquis 52.00 +0.00 18 0
33 +0 Ryan Dempster 51.76 +0.00 17 0
34 +0 Tim Wakefield 49.53 +0.00 17 0
35 +0 Barry Zito 48.33 +0.00 18 0
36 +0 Derek Lowe 48.32 +0.00 19 0
37 +0 Kevin Slowey 47.63 +0.00 16 0
38 +0 Bronson Arroyo 47.29 +0.00 17 0

Cheers.

(Again, if there are any pitchers that you'd like to see added to the above list, just let me know.)