John Manuel's Top 20 Prospects.

John Manuel of Baseball America has just released his top 20 prospects list. One Blue Jay made the list: Kyle Drabek. Here's what he had to say,

16. Kyle Drabek, rhp, Blue Jays
WHY HE’S HERE: The son of 1990 Cy Young Award winner Doug Drabek was the key piece in the Roy Halladay trade and instantly became Toronto’s top prospect. His stuff wasn’t always consistent in 2009, but at his best he has an excellent curveball, a plus fastball and a decent changeup.
WHAT HE’LL BE: If his changeup gets better, Drabek can be a No. 2 starter on a championship team. If not, he could become a Tom Gordon clone as a closer, bringing mid-90s heat and finishing off hitters with his curve.
WHEN HE ARRIVES: Drabek was vulnerable to lefthanded hitters last year, and the Blue Jays have pitching depth, so Drabek should be able to move up to Triple-A and hone his changeup in 2010 without having to immediately deal with the burden of being the Player Traded for Roy Halladay.

Pretty much what we all expected. It seems like people bounce back and forth between both Stewart and Drabek as the number one arm in the system. I suppose that Drabek is a little more iffy: He's younger and less polished; a lot of his potential as a dominant starter is dependent on how well he's able to develop a changeup; and he does have long term injury concerns. Manuel makes an excellent point about the pitching depth. I'm leaning more toward having Drabek spend the entire year and Las Vegas. Let's let the kid cook there for a bit; there's no need to push him throw the system on a team that really has no chance to contend over the next few years.

On Drabek and a few other tidbits...

At the beginning of last year, people were saying number two or three starter in Drabek, but 2009 was a big year for him; it was his first year back from Tommy John's. Drabek had a very good 2009: his ERA was a little up, but his K:BB ratio was a very commanding 3.5:1. I heard something today that said he strikes out something like 30% of batters that he faces. He's got great command of his fastball, but his K pitch is a hard bitting 12-6 curve. He's currently working on a change up, which would be the final piece to make him a 4-pitch starter: fastball +, curve +, slider, change up (still young so could be a 4-plus pitcher). After his season last year, people are saying that his ceiling is very high. This will be his second season back from TJ surgery, so theoretically he should have his power back. He'll be starting in AA. Baseball America (one of the top prospect people) call him the number one prospect in the system.

Also, don't forget about Zach Stewart—remember him, we got him in the Rolan deal. He's supposed to be a pretty good young arm too. He has a chance to make the team out of spring training, but he's still young, so another year in AAA wouldn't hurt. According to BA, Stewart is the number 2 pitcher in the system, and sits about 4th overall.

Another really interesting thing that I heard today concerned scouting. One of the first thing that AA did when he came to power was to almost immediately increase the number of scouts in the organization—in fact, they about doubled the number of both professional and amateur scouts in the system. Did not know that. Actually, it was also said that under JP, the Jays ceased to scout high-schoolers... go figure.

BA is set to release their annual Prospect Handbook (I'm probably going to pick up a copy). They have Drabek ranked number one and Wallace ranked number two (I think they have d'Arnaud somewhere 6-7ish, but don't quote me yet). So, for Halladay we got two prospects better than anything we had before. Guess who they have third: our boy Arencibia. He's ranked higher than d'Arnaud because he's more advanced in development than d'Arnaud.

One more thing, I also heard that Wallace has a good chance of making the team out of spring training if there's no one blocking him at first base—ahem Overbay.