When John Lackey signed with the Red Sox, that sweet sweet first round draft pick we got from them turned into a second round pick; number 70 overall. You kind of had to see this coming. The Sox were bound to pickup a top corner outfielder—I was hoping Bay would resign and this wouldn't be a problem—or they would beef up the starting rotation. They did the latter and got Mike Cameron as well.
The draft situation still looks good:
First Round:
#11 (their own)
Supplemental:
#33 (For Scutaro)
#38 (for failing to sign James Paxton, a 2009 sandwich rounder)
Second Round:
#52 (Their own)
#69 (for failing to sign Jake Eliopolous, a 2009 second-round pick)
#70 (For Scutaro)
Third Round:
#84 (the Jays' third-round pick)
#104 (for their failure to sign Jake Barrett, a Jays' 3rd-round pick in 2009).
Assume that Barajas is gone, and you can add another supplemental pick. That included, the Jays have 9 picks in the first 3 rounds, and 5 in the top 50ish.
And apparently we'll have the money to sign these picks...
Yay.
Just a reminder...
On Drabek and a few other tidbits...
At the beginning of last year, people were saying number two or three starter in Drabek, but 2009 was a big year for him; it was his first year back from Tommy John's. Drabek had a very good 2009: his ERA was a little up, but his K:BB ratio was a very commanding 3.5:1. I heard something today that said he strikes out something like 30% of batters that he faces. He's got great command of his fastball, but his K pitch is a hard bitting 12-6 curve. He's currently working on a change up, which would be the final piece to make him a 4-pitch starter: fastball +, curve +, slider, change up (still young so could be a 4-plus pitcher). After his season last year, people are saying that his ceiling is very high. This will be his second season back from TJ surgery, so theoretically he should have his power back. He'll be starting in AA. Baseball America (one of the top prospect people) call him the number one prospect in the system.
Also, don't forget about Zach Stewart—remember him, we got him in the Rolan deal. He's supposed to be a pretty good young arm too. He has a chance to make the team out of spring training, but he's still young, so another year in AAA wouldn't hurt. According to BA, Stewart is the number 2 pitcher in the system, and sits about 4th overall.
Another really interesting thing that I heard today concerned scouting. One of the first thing that AA did when he came to power was to almost immediately increase the number of scouts in the organization—in fact, they about doubled the number of both professional and amateur scouts in the system. Did not know that. Actually, it was also said that under JP, the Jays ceased to scout high-schoolers... go figure.
BA is set to release their annual Prospect Handbook (I'm probably going to pick up a copy). They have Drabek ranked number one and Wallace ranked number two (I think they have d'Arnaud somewhere 6-7ish, but don't quote me yet). So, for Halladay we got two prospects better than anything we had before. Guess who they have third: our boy Arencibia. He's ranked higher than d'Arnaud because he's more advanced in development than d'Arnaud.
One more thing, I also heard that Wallace has a good chance of making the team out of spring training if there's no one blocking him at first base—ahem Overbay.
Series Recap: Orioles @ Blue Jays, Aug. 7 - 9
Joe Carter and co. decided to pick a lonely weekend in mid-August to celebrate the 16th and 17th anniversaries of the good old days: '92 and '93 back-to-back world series victories. It was a time when the Blue Jays were a force not to be reckoned with; a time when ownership had one thing on their minds: winning. Kudos has to be given to Pat Gillick who was the architect of the championship teams. While talking to Sam Cosentino, I heard Gillick mention something completely fascinating: Between the '92 and '93, 13 players were different on the roster. Amazing. Lose Winfield, go out and get Molitor, and so on.
Those were the days; it was a time when August, September and October meant something to Jays fans. In spite of all the nostalgia of the weekend, there was also a baseball series taking place.
Game 1:
Baltimore 7, Toronto 5
Romero was pretty solid on the mound through 5; he had a no-no going until Melvin Mora hit a liner up the middle with two outs in the 5th inning. You could definitely tell he had the no-hitter on his mind. Once Mora's liner squeaked between Scoots and Hill into the outfield for a hit, Romero looked pretty frustrated. Really Rickey? In the 5th inning? This showed his youthful inexperience: A veteran pitcher would have simply moved on.
Things started to fall apart in the 6th for the kid. The inning started with a walk to Wieters the number 8 batter. Izturis then singled, which brought about the top of the order. Bing, bang boom, he gave up 4 runs and the Jays were down 4-3. Taking a close look at Romero's pitching, we see that he had trouble commanding the strike-zone:
Let's look at his pitching in the 6th inning, when things started to fall apart:
The last plot separates his pitches for the first 5 innings of work and those in his 6th inning of work. There are a lot of red dots out of the zone, and more importantly a lot up in the zone. In this inning, he gave up a few hard hit balls to the outfield; players were able to get on top of the ball and drive it.
Rickey had good velocity on his 4-seamer. I think what pitch/fx labels as a slider is actually a sinker of some sort, judging by its lack of horizontal movement and relative sink compared to the straighter 4-seam fastball.Carlson came out in relief followed by League. This season, League has show zero consistency; when he's on, he's really on, but when he's off, God help us. Brandon League was off and it took three runs before Cito gave him the hook. Accardo saw a little action to finish off the 8th and Camp camp out to stop the bleeding in the 9th; Camp continued to pitch well.
The shock of the season came in the second inning when Wells and Rios had back-to-back jacks. Might as well start hitting when the team is well out of the post-season hunt. "Big" Joe Inglett also had a good day at the plate, going 2 for 4 with a run and a double.
In the end, the team couldn't pull one out for Cito who was playing in front of a lot of old time friends and greats.
Game 2:
Toronto 3, Baltimore 2 - 10 innings
Cecil started the game, but left in the 4th inning after trying to make a fancy play on a ball hit toward first base. The initial prognosis was a strained MCL. Apparently, this had been bothering Cecil for a while and he aggravated the sore ligament on the play at first; he had soreness pushing off the mound—should he have been playing? My first reaction to the strained MCL was "uh oh, not good." Apparently he had an MRI and everything seems to be okay; he should only miss one start in the rotation. We'll just have to wait and see.Has Cecil had Tommy John yet?
Until the injury, Cecil was having a satisfactory outing: he gave up 5 hits on 19 total batters faced, with 4 Ks, 2 BB and gave up 2 ER. Brain Tallet came in in long relief, pitching 5 scoreless innings. Good to have a guy like him in the pen. Edwin "E5" Encarnacion tried to do his best Scott Rolen impression, barehanding a softly hit grounder which he then threw wildly to first base.
The offense wasn't stacked at the top of the order like it had been in many recent games. Everyone was in the party: everyone in the lineup had a hit—expect Vdub, of course. Rios hit a home run in back-to-back games—maybe he should be perpetually placed on waivers?—in the second inning to put the Jays up 2-0. Adam Lind finally gave the Jays an extra inning victory with a one out double to left scoring Scoots.
The Jays have their first walk-off victory in 83 games.
Game 3:
Toronto 7, Baltimore 3
This game featured the battle of veteran vs. rookie on the mound: Halladay against Matusz. Veteran prevailed. In his 7 starts since coming back from a groin injury on June 29, Halladay has gone 1-4. Over these games, the Jays have only given him an average of 2.43 runs—pathetic offensive numbers. Halladay pitched a good one, and the Jays backed this effect with solid offensive play. 70% of balls hit in play against Halladay were on the ground and he threw only 26% of his pitched for balls. The Jays got to Matusz early and he was given the hook in the bottom of the third. Frasor came in to shut the Orioles down in the 9th. Frasor has been the Jays most effective reliever and has shown intestinal fortitude when being put into closer situations.Kevin Millar; clean up hitter. FUCK. And he hits a home run. What an asshole. And he went 3 for 3. What a dick. Who the hell does Millar think he is? VDub continued with a good series at the plate with another home run; this one with men on base. The last time he hit one with runners on was in May. Scoots was a monster at the plate; he went 4 for 5 with a home run.
The highlight of the broadcast for me was in the top of the 4th when Kevin Weekes joined Campbell and the Tabby Cat from the TD Canada Trust Comfort Zone. You could just tell that Campbell was praying for a quick close to top of 4th which seems to drag on and on. Kevin Keekes?
Thumbs up goes to...
Vernon Wells. He went 4 for 11 in the series with 2 HR, 5 RBI and a wOBA of .475. He also lead the team with a WPA of .298.
Alex Rios. He was 4 for 10 at the plate with 2 HR, 4 RBI and a .535 wOBA.
Marco Scutaro. He went 5 for 13 for the series.
Brian Tallet. Accepting of his spot back in the pen, Tallet came out in an emergency situation and pitched 5 solid innings.
Jason Frasor. Frasor saw action in game 2 and 3. He faced a total of 6 batters and gave up no hits.
Thumbs down goes to...
Kevin Millar. I don't care that he was 3 for 3 with a home run and a wOBA of 1.000 in his only game played. Fuck Kevin Millar.
Rod Barajas. He was 0 for 8.
Adam Lind. He was 1 for 12
Brandon League. On 7 batters faced he gave up 4 hits and 3 runs.
The Blue Jays (53-57) take on the Yankees (69-42) starting today in New York. The probables are Marc Rzepczynski(1-3, 3.74) vs. Sergio Mitre (1-0, 7.50), Scott Richmond (6-6, 3.97) vs. Joba Chamberlain, (8-2, 3.73) and Ricky Romero (10-5, 3.66) vs. A.J. Burnett (10-5, 3.67).
Who would have thought Romero and Burnett would have the same record at this point in the season? Go Jays Go.
Series Recap: Yankees @ Blue Jays, Aug. 4 - 5.
The Yanks were in town for a quick two game set against the Jays this week. The Jays came into the series undefeated in August (hey, I know it's only 2-for-2, but at this point in the season, any glimmer of success feels damn good). Well, the Bronx Bombers quickly stamped the shit out of any feel-good feelings; late inning shit pitching was the story in both losses.
Game 1:
Yankees 5, Blue Jays 3
I'm really getting sick and tired of this horseshit: Why was Kevin Millar hitting 4th? Why is he even on the team. His slash line going into the game was an absolutely pathetic .227/.302/.386 with 5, yes 5, home runs. And how about that rainbow toss to Halladay on a routine grounder hit his way. That costly error lead to the second Yankee run in the first inning. Can we please rid the Jays of Kevin Millar already? Here is an Open letter to Cito gaston by some (drunk) fans—I couldn't agree more.
Despite the little league infielding of the first inning, Halladay pitched a pretty good game until the 8th inning. Let's take a look at Halladay's pitching.
The above plot shows where Halladay's pitches crossed the plate from the catcher's point of view. The standard strike-zone is shown in red. Units are in inches. Pitch types are Change Up (CH), Curve (CU), Cutter (FC), and 4-seam fastball (FF)First thing I noticed right away was that there were a lot of 4-seamers in the middle and upper half of the plate. Halladay is known for good sink on his fastball. Looks like he had issues keeping it down in the zone. He did, however, have a 52% GB rate; even the fastballs in the upper part of the zone were deceiving batters. Halladay also showed great control of his change up, the majority are down and in on righties. Let's take a look at his pitch movement.
(The above plot shows how each pitch moved compared to if the same ball was thrown without any spin.)Immediately, this plot struck me as being a little odd: Look at the wide distribution in horizontal movement of his 4-seam fastball. It looks like the pitch f/x system had a hard time defining Roy's fastballs. I find it hard to believe that his 4-seamer could vary in horizontal break between about 12 to 3 inches. I'd infer that some pitches that had more inside-out (in on righties) are probably 2-seam fastballs, while some pitches that had more outside-in (away from righties) are cutters. Maybe this is part of Roy's pitching genius: If the computer has trouble deciphering a 4-seam fastball from a cutter, maybe batters face that same problem? Looks like a 4-seamer until the last second and breaks to the right. Rivera has made a great living with a cutter like that.
I just don't understand why Halladay came out to pitch in the 8th. Although his pitch count wasn't overwhelmingly high at the point, it was obvious that Halladay was starting to run on fumes. Why was he still in the game? Lack of confidence in the pen? Probably had something to do with it. But, let's be honest: Roy Halladay was kept in the game just because he's Roy Halladay. Cito Gaston, grow a pair of balls. Halladay gave up back-to-back jacks against Damon and Teixeira putting New York up 4-1. The Jays made a an attempt at a comeback in the bottom half on hits by Scoots and Hill—always doing the lion's share of the clutch offense along with Lind—who were then doubled in by Wells (with a clutch hit against Rivera! Vdub, you shouldn't have, and at home to boot!).
Game note: Kevin "K-lean up" Millar was 0 for 3, 2 SO and a walk. That's some quality 4 spot hitting.
Game 2:
Yankees 8, Blue Jays 4
Cito's open audition for the cleanup stop brought candidate number 2, Lyle Overbay, to the stage—Kevin Millar, you will NOT be going to Hollywood. The Jays were in this one right until the 7th inning when things got
What a thing of beauty; there are practically no pitches in the upper half of the plate. Great control of the slider; he kept to the lower left half of the zone. Great control of the 2-seamer; he kept it on the right side of the plate. A great distribution of 4-seamers; he kept them down in the zone.
You can see that he love to throw his slider and he's got good movement.
Rzed was replaced by newcomer Josh Roenicke who had a less than ideal home debut in Toronto. Roenicke was hit around the park—frankly, Rolen could have had a better showing on the mound—and gave up 3 hits and 2 runs on 8 batters. One bright spot—I'm digging here, but I want some optimism for not-Rolen—was that he recorded two Ks in his one inning of work. Carlson came in in the 8th and was hit around a bit, then a hairless and mustacheless Brian Tallet came in in the 9th and gave up a leadoff homer to Mr. Hollywood, Johnny Damon.
The Jays are now 2-2 in August.
Thumbs up goes to...
Marco Scutaro. Scoots was 4 for 10 with a HR(!), which gave him a wOBA of .465 for the series.
Not much great came out of this series...
I'll give an honourable mention to Lyle Overbay. He only played in the second game, but went 2 for 3 and drew a walk in the 4 hole.
Thumbs down goes to...
Josh Roenicke. When you come over in a deal that sees fan favourite Scott Rolen go the other way, you certainly don't want to start off like Josh did at home.
Kevin Millar. See above. Fuck Kevin Millar.
Cito Gaston. Honestly Cito, what the fuck. The lineup is a mess and you're pitching decisions have been questionable over the past few weeks. Don't you let me know now, Cito. Don't you fucking let me down now.
The next series starts on Friday in Toronto against the Orioles. The pitching match-ups are, Cecil (5-1, 4.36) vs. Berken (1-9, 6.93), Romero (10-4, 3.53) vs. Tillman (0-0, 6-75), and Halladay (11-5, 2.75) vs. Matusz (1-0, 1.80)
That Sunday matching will be the one to watch: old versus new. In Matusz's first start last week, he showed some wicked stuff.
Go Jays Go.
Series Recap: Blue Jays @ Athletics, July 31-Aug 2.
The Jays continues their west coast swing with three against the Athletics of Oakland. A few notable events occured for the Jays going into this one: The big Scott "The Human Highlight Real" Rolen trade—if you haven't already, check out The Blue Jay Hunter's top 10 Rolen defensive gems as a Jay—which brought Edwin "E5" Encarnacion and Josh Roenicke to the lineup on Saturday; and on Friday Scott Richmond made his first start after coming off the DL.
Game Recaps
Game 1: Oakland 8, Toronto 5
Scott Downs Richmond made his first start since a month long stint on the DL and he stunk himself right out of the ball park. I was embarrassed to be a Jays fan watching this disgrace unfold. The entirety of the best fielding team in baseball was clearly murdered before the game and replaced with an inferior fielding group of cyborgs. Alex "I'm scared of a routine fly ball" cost Richmond a couple of runs in the first. The train was off the tracks and never quite got back on. Richmond went a pathetic 3+ having given up 7 hits, 6 runs—4 earned due to the Rios error—on only 19 batters. I'm not going to show the FanGraph win probability graph for this one; it looked like the heart-rate of a 400lb blob of a human chasing a twinkie.
What business did Kevin Millar have batting 4th? Jesus. His slash line was a joke going into this game: .227/.303/.370. Not cleanup hitter number. Those are teetering on Mendosa line numbers for Chirst sake. At least he made up for his pathetic batting with great defense. No wait. He bobbled a grounder routine that would have ended the 4th inning. Millar is useless and needs to be released. End of story.
My Cyborg speculation was proven to be true when Cyborg John McDonald committed an error on an innocently hit ground ball—the real Sir John A. would have made the play, clearly. The only bright spot of this one came from the one, two, three hitters—Scoots, Hill, Lind—who had 8 of the 10 hits. I'll be honest; this game was so bad that I passed out sometime during the top of the 4th and had to watch the rest of the game the next morning on mlb.tv
Game 2: Toronto 6, Oakland 5
Okay, game 1 had Millar in the 4 hole. This game had Overbay in the 4 hole? What the fuck is going on? I guess this begs the question, who else do they have to put in the cleanup slot? Fair enough. Personally I think Hill should be batting 3rd—I don't think he has the speed of a true number 2—and ideally Rios should be batting second. However, this year Rios's batting average doesn't warrant him a spot in the top 3 (I'm planning on writing a post on the 2010 Jays and a possible lineup soon). Anyway, Overbay as cleanup.
Cecil had a decent game. In fact, he only ran into real problems in the 2th. Taking away the 2th inning, Cecil had an excellent start. The Blue Jay bats were working in this one providing enough run support to squeak out a win. Wells AND Rios both had good days at the plate and Hill extended his hit streak, had 4 RBIs, and a home run that came at an absolute perfect time (look at the change in WP on the graph).
League continued his string of solid appearances going 3 up and three down relief of Cecil in the 8th. BJ Ryan Scott Downs had another rough outing which was saved by an apparent foot/leg/labia injury. Not sure if he took a dive so that he didn't blow another save, but in any case Frasor had to come on and clean up the mess. He did. We won. Yay.
After the game, Downs was placed on the DL and Accardo was bounced back up; he hadn't even left the hotel in San Fransisco yet...
Game 3:
Another game with Overbay in the 4 hole. Jose BAW-tista leading off? Oy vay. Anyway, this was a game to actually get a little excited about:
The Jays' hitters got to Athletics' starter right from the get go: Hill had a two run shot; Alex Rios hit a line drive double to left. It was 5-0 going into Romero's side of the first and the Jays never really looked back. Romero had a great game completing 7 innings, giving up 8H, 2ER, with 5K and 1BB. He also had a very impressive 50% GB% and recorded his 10th win of the season.
McDonald does his best Scott Rolen impression by starting a seemingly impossible double play. We also got a first look at the newly acquired Josh Roenicke. His 95 mph fastball was impressive; he struck out two of the four batters faced.
Finally a game where there offense and pitching were clicking at the same time. This was a great game to watch.
Thumbs up goes to...
Aaron Hill. Hill was an absolute monster this series. He went 6 for 14, had 2 2B, 2HR and cashed in 8 RBI. His wOBA for the series was a massive .545.
Rickey Romero. Recording his 10th win on a very good start on Sunday.
Jason Frasor. He continued his string of great relief—even in high pressure situations—when he cleaned up Scott Downs' mess on Saturday.
Josh Roenicke. Got a good first look in one inning pitched on Sunday.
Thumbs down goes to...
Scott Richmond. His first start back from the DL was brutal. Let's hope this was just an anomaly.
Scott Downs. Brutal. DL. Good riddance.
Alex Rios. His only hit of the series was his bases loaded double in game three. He didn't reach base in any of this other 11 plate appearances.
The next series is a short 2 gamer at home against the Yankees starting Tuesday. The probable pitchers are Pettitte (8-6, 4.51) vs. Halladay (11-4, 2.68) and Mitre (1-0, 7.90) vs. Rzepczynski (1-2, 3.25).
Looking forward to both pitching match-ups; it's always great to see The Doctor on the mount; and the battle of the youngsters should be great on Wednesday.
I'll have the Game Score Update done later tonight.
Series Recap: Blue Jays @ Mariners, July 27-29.
The last series against the Mariners was about as disappointing as the last three. Seattle won the series 2-1. Both losses were by one run and one of the losses came in the bottom of the ninth; yet another blown save by Scott Downs in the past week. The Jays just couldn't put together a full game of baseball: When their bats were working in game one, pitching wasn't at it's greatest; when their pitching was somewhat decent in games two and three, the bats weren't there to provide any significant run support. This coupled with some good pitching for Seattle pretty much sealed the deal on any hopes of taking two or three games.
Game Recaps
Game 1: Toronto 11, Seattle 4
WP Romero (9-4), LP Hernandez (11-4)
The FanGraph win probability graph shows the game was fairly even until the 6th when the Jays started to poor it on. Alex Rios—of all people—tied the game at four with a liner to left that scored Wells. Amazing. Rios hit to score Wells. Somehow Rios and Wells combined to score a run. Barahas and Inglet had back to back singles to score a couple more. All this with two outs. Carlson came in in the 7th, Downs came in in the 8th and Hayhurst—yes Dirk got some action!—came in in the 9th to shut down the Mariners.
Wait a second? Downs came in in the 8th while the score was 11-4? Downs has been taking a serious read from the B.J. Ryan book of pitching since the All-Star break. I just don't think putting him into a game situation in the 8th when the game is all but done—yes, I'm trying not to think about the 8 run blown lead from last week—is worth anything. A closer is a closer; they work under high pressure situations.
Game 2: Seattle 4, Toronto 3
WP Aardsma (3-3), LP Downs (1-3)
What a fucking stinker of a game. I'm really getting sick and tired of these one run losses. Especially the slew of walk-off losses the Jays have endured this year (worst team in baseball in extra innings, what a joke).
Rzed is starting to come back down to earth. I've said this in every single one of my posts about his pitching: his control and efficiency is shit. It's starting to catch up with him. 41% of his pitches were balls. This number has to come down if he's going to be an effective starter. He's keeping the ball too high in the strike zone, which produced only 4GB out of 12 balls in play. He did record 8Ks, which keeps his K/9 very high, but he needs to be more consistent.
This game just plain sucked to watch. The top of the 8th brought on a good high: Scutaro gets on base with a lead off double, Hill doubles, and Rios double—Alex Rios with another clutch hit—to tie the game up at 3. Shaun Camp threw 2.2 great innings, facing 8 batters and giving up only one hit. He continues to be pretty rock solid when pitching under three innings of relief.
Then comes the bottom of the 9th, Scott Downs, and a gentleman simply known as Ichiro. He hit a good pitch to win the game—whatever. The PitchFX tool shows that it was a good pitch from Downs; Ichiro went way out of the strike-zone to get it and somehow muscled a blooper to win the game. I get it. It was a good pitch. The fact is that Downs is pitching like shit. He made a couple good pitches against Ichiro—okay. But, he started off the inning by giving up a single to Hannahan, he walked Johnson and he made an embarrassing attempt to field a bunt from Woodward—Chris fucking Woodward. Downs gave up that hit to Ichiro because he allowed Ichiro to come up to bat by not ending the game 2 batters before. Scott Downs is playing like shit.
Game 3: Seattle 3, Toronto 2
WP Rowland-Smith (1-1), S Aardsma (25), LP Halladay (11-4)
An uncharacteristic 11 hits over 7 innings by Halladay, a great pitching effort from Rowland-Smith—he had a no-no going into the 7th—and a lack of any real offense from Jays and what can you say? Speculate all you want about trade rumours, but Halladay was gassed going into the 7th. He hadn't pitched a great game to that point. I have no idea why Cito kept him in. Camp did throw a bunch the game before, but Frasor, Accardo, Carlson and League were all easily available. I blame this loss on Cito.
The Jays now have a record of 49-53 and sit 13.5GB of the Yankees in the division.
Thumbs up goes to...
Alex Rios. He went 4 for 13, 1 2B, and 2RBI for the series. He also had a couple of clutch at bats in the first and second games of the series and had a 0.293 WPA, tops of all Jays hitters.
Marco Scutaro. He went 5 for 13 and had a wOBA of 0.346 for the series.
Joe Inglett. He went 3 for 6 in the series. He had a great first game of the series and game in as a pitch runner in the second game and got a key single in his at bat.
Aaron Hill. He made a couple very clutch hits and had the second best 0.239 WPA.
Shawn Camp. Great outing in game two.
Thumbs down goes to...
Scott Downs. Duh. Had an absolutely terrible game 2 and lost the game in the bottom of the 9th. During that outing, he gave up 3 hits, and a walk on 8 batters faced.
Kevin Millar. He went 0 for 4 in 6 plate appearances.
Jose Bautista. He went 0 for 5 in 7 plate appearances. It's hard to stay mad at him though; he did make a couple of great throws in the field.
Vernon Wells. He went 2 for 12 and couldn't put the bat to the ball when it counted. His -0.280 WPA was worst on the team over the series.
Next series starts tomorrow against the Athletics of Oakland. Probably pitchers are Richmond (6-5, 3.69) vs. Barden (7-9, 3.74), Romero (9-4, 3.59) vs. Cahill (6-9, 4.77) and TBA vs. Mazzaro (2-7, 5.16).
Richmond gets his first start back from rehab. The Jays are facing the bottom of the rotation. Hopefully they can pull out a couple of wins.
Game Recap: Indians-Jays, Game 3.
I just don't get it: how is it that both TSN and RSN don't show a Jays' home game? This makes not fucking sense to me at all. Anyway, luckily for mlb.tv, I got to watch the game, but I was forced to endure the Cleveland feed. To add a little insult to injury, somewhere during the begining of the game—through my rage, I can't remember the exact point—Pat Tabler was shown alone in the TSN broadcasting booth watching the game. Fucking Tabby Cat—put on the damn headset and let's do this! I just don't get it.
R-zep made his fourth start of the year yesterday against Cleveland's David Huff. Marc's line was 4.1IP, 4R, 2ER, 6K, 4BB; definitely the worst of his three outings. I could pretty much describe his start today by copying and pasting my descriptions of his last three starts: control was an issue. On 92 pitches, he threw 53 strikes; this is up slightly from his other outings, but still only 57.6%. Again—like all three of his other starts—walks got him into trouble. The top of the 4th started with a single by Cabrera. R-zep then hit Shin-Soo Choo with a pitch and walked Victor Martinez. Shawn Camp was warming up in the bullpen as all this was unfolding. Here we sat, no outs and the bases jacked. I felt this to be another situation where Cito leaves his starter in for one, two, or ten too many batters.
R-zep then struck out Peralta and then Gargo, both swinging; now it was two outs with the bases still full. I was thinking to myself that the kid found his arm again and would get a little pop-up or a ground out to end the inning. No. Like his first start, he gave up a walk to score a run. He then struck out Jamey Carroll swinging.
I just don't understand how R-zep can be so up and down in one inning of play. Whatever it is, he needs to control his walks a lot better than he has. They've been the problem in all of his starts. For the season, he's now averaging 8.87 K/9 but 6.04 BB/9. Over his outings, he's averaging 4.21 P/PA. If he could throw more strikes, he's sure to win more games.
FanGraph's win probability graph shows that the Jays were in it for most of the game. The spike in the 9th came when Rios stole second to put himself into scoring position with no outs. Unfortunately, Baw-tista—all Jay fans know that's how it's pronounced, not Ba-tista like the Indians' announcers kept saying all game—Barajas and Overbay couldn't bring in the equalizer.
Rios's play as of late has been a tiny bright spot in a sky of black. Over his last 10 games he has gone 11-34 at the plate, which has him batting .324/.415/.500, with 3 doubles and a home run. Rios has also stolen 5 bases on 5 attempts over that time as well.
Today is Halladay's second last scheduled start before the "Jays Line." Should be a good one; I bet the Dome will be full.
Game Recap: Indians-Jays, game 1.
As I mentioned in my previous post, I didn't get a chance to watch much of the game live. I did take advantage of one of my favourite mlb.tv features, and I watched the condensed game this morning.
The starting pitchers certainly did their part in this one: Cecil line was 7.0IP, 7H, 0ER, 4BB, 9K and Lee pitched the complete game with, 7H, 1ER, 0BB, and 4K.
One this I did notice in this game was that Cecil gave up a lot of extra-base hits, but they were spread across the game, so they didn't result in any earned runs. Cecil also had a decent strike count, recording 67 strikes on 108 pitches. He also had a very good ground balls to fly balls ration at 10-4, which might explain why he gave up hard hits for extra bases, but no home runs. Brett also did a great job peppering the strike zone as shown in the PitchFx graph. He also showed great speed on his fastball which averaged 91.6mph, peaked at 93.4mph and he was able to keep excellent control
Yet another very good outing from a young arm. I'm looking forward to tonight's matching where Romero takes on Pavano in the Dome.
Game Recap: Sox-Jays, Game 2
After his first two Big League starts were very repsectable, LHP Marc Rzepczynski got his first win MLB win. Yesterday's performance was similar to his other two starts: 6.0IP, 4H, 1ER, 4BB, and 4K—another quality start, keeping his QS to GS ratio at a perfect 1.000. In total he threw 109 pitches where 59 of those where for strikes; he his still struggling a little at finding the strike zone and, although he's striking batters out—8.00 K/9 over 3 three starts—his walks have gotten him into some trouble—5.50 BB/9 over his last three starts. Also, over his three starts only 58.4% of his pitches where strikes. Comparing this number to the other Jays starters, Halladay (68.7%), Tallet (60.4%), Romero (60.8%), and Richmond (60.8%), if he could get that number up a bit, he could dominate deeper into games. That being said, he's currently averaging just about 103 pitches per start, which I find to be impressive for a kid who has spent most of this time in New Hampshire this season.
Adam Lind continued his great offensive season with a homerun and a pair of RBIs. Scott Rolen had another great day at the plate going 2-3 with a walk and scored two runs. He also added another gem to his already long highlight real when he robbed JD Drew of a base hit on a liner near second (Rolen was player over in the shift). Overbay also had a good day at the plate, going 2-4 and scored once. It's slightly disturbing to me that trade rumours involving Rolen and Overbay are swirling around, especially since it seems like Boston is interested in Rolen to replace Lowell who has been struggling with injury. Hopefully Rolen didn't showcase his talent too well yesterday.
Vernon Wells sat out his second straight game with what head athletic trainer George Poulis described as violently explosive diarrhea. I really don't mind the outfield looking like Bautista-Rios-Lind, not at all. Although, Delucci has been playing good defence lately, but he injured his foot—x-rays came back negative—during the first game of the series. His bat has been absolutely attrocious though.
Today's game should be a pitching gem: Halladay versus Lester. This is the first of three starts that Halladay will probably have before the July 31st no waiver trade deadline.
Vernon Wells: and you thought his offence was bad.
The boys at Mopupduty.com show that Wells ranks worst among CF in the MLB.
Vernon’s UZR/150 (zone rating over 150 games) is an MLB CF worst -31.9. To put this into perspective a few players are tied for second down at -12ish... Wells’ fielding has cost the Jays 21.3 runs vs an average fielder this season. This is second worst in the MLB, only -0.3 less than Adam Dunn’s -21.6 fielding runs.
My fucking God! Sweet fucking Jesus! Adam Dunn?
Christ.
The article is worth a read.
Update: Thanks to FanGraphs, I've tracked down the complete fielding number for CFs in the MLB:
| Team | UZR/150 |
| Blue Jays | -29.6 |
| Braves | -13.2 |
| Orioles | -12.8 |
| Phillies | -12.4 |
| Indians | -11.5 |
| Nationals | -10.4 |
| Red Sox | -9.7 |
| Mets | -8.3 |
| Diamondbacks | -6.9 |
| Astros | -4.8 |
| Rockies | -4.1 |
| Angels | -4.1 |
| Twins | -3.2 |
| Cubs | 0.7 |
| Pirates | 1.7 |
| Tigers | 1.7 |
| Marlins | 1.8 |
| Rays | 3.4 |
| Padres | 4.1 |
| Brewers | 5.9 |
| White Sox | 7 |
| Rangers | 7.7 |
| Giants | 8 |
| Reds | 8.8 |
| Dodgers | 10.5 |
| Yankees | 10.9 |
| Royals | 11.1 |
| Athletics | 14.3 |
| Cardinals | 21 |
| Mariners | 21.3 |
For all CF, the average UZR/150 is +0.3. Vernon Wells carries a z-score of -2.66; statistically he performs much worse than the average CF.
Shawn Marcum AA rehab start
This is very good news, indeed.
Shawn Marcum made the start last night in a AA pitching duel between the Fisher Cats and the Connecticut Defenders. The Cats whet on to win 1-0 (boxscore). Marcum himself had a very solid outting:
| IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | ERA | |
| Marcum | 4.2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0.00 |
Although he only pitched 4.2, he only gave up three hits on 19 batters faced.
Before this start, Marcum had made two rehab starts with Dunedin, only going a total of 6 innings over both. The Jays are slowly testing his arm; the fact that he only made two starts in HiA before going up to AA might mean that we could see him in the Big Leagues this season.
Since '05 Marcum's fastball has fallen from an average of 89.4 mph to 86.8 last year. Hopefully, in enough time, he can touch 90mph again
Vernon Wells: by the numbers
Vernon Wells has under produced this season—plain and simple. In December of '06, the club signed him to a huge extension worth $126M over 7 years; at the time it was the 7th largest contract in MLB history. Details of the contract break down as follows:
| Year | Salary ($M) |
| 2009 | 10 |
| 2010 | 21 |
| 2011 | 23 |
| 2012 | 21 |
| 2013 | 21 |
| 2014 | 21 |
There are also performance bonuses:
| 250K | MVP |
| 200K | World Series MVP |
| 150K | ALCS MVP |
| 100K | Most votes in all-star balloting |
The contract also includes a full no-trade clause and Wells has the option of opting out after the 2011 season (not bloody likely at this rate).
Offensively, Vernon Wells is in the lineup to produce runs, and this is something that he has not done. Through 84 games, he has hit just .167 (15-90) with runners in scoring position, has only 9 dingers and 38 RBIs. Wells is also struggling when he is down in the count, hitting only .205 with two strikes—he loves to chase that slider down and away and every pitcher seems to throw it at him. Wells' struggle reached a unprecedented level when Cito—the stingiest litmus test for loosing confidence in a hitter—moved him from the cleanup spot to 6th in the lineup.
I'd like to push my frustrations to the side and take a purely objective view of Wells' production this season and compare him to the other CFs in the league. The only way to do this is using number: statistics and sabermetrics. Good thing I love numbers. Here's a list of the qualified CFs this year, sorted based on 2009 salary:
| RK | PLAYER | TEAM | HR | RBI | BA | OPS | RC | BB/K | Salary |
| 1 | Carlos Beltran | NYM | 8 | 40 | 0.336 | 0.952 | 53.2 | 1.09 | 19,243,682 |
| 2 | Torii Hunter | LAA | 17 | 65 | 0.305 | 0.938 | 59.2 | 0.65 | 18,000,000 |
| 3 | Kosuke Fukudome | CHC | 7 | 27 | 0.26 | 0.811 | 41.7 | 0.87 | 12,500,000 |
| 4 | Vernon Wells | TOR | 9 | 38 | 0.261 | 0.721 | 46.1 | 0.64 | 10,000,000 |
| 5 | Mike Cameron | MIL | 14 | 41 | 0.259 | 0.84 | 50.6 | 0.62 | 10,000,000 |
| 6 | Aaron Rowand | SFO | 9 | 40 | 0.293 | 0.819 | 47.3 | 0.3 | 9,600,000 |
| 7 | Grady Sizemore | CLE | 13 | 47 | 0.229 | 0.768 | 38.3 | 0.54 | 4,766,666 |
| 8 | Curtis Granderson | DET | 18 | 43 | 0.254 | 0.794 | 54.9 | 0.58 | 3,500,000 |
| 9 | Shane Victorino | PHI | 6 | 42 | 0.314 | 0.851 | 63.4 | 0.9 | 3,125,000 |
| 10 | Marlon Byrd | TEX | 8 | 44 | 0.283 | 0.799 | 42 | 0.34 | 3,060,000 |
| 11 | Nate McLouth | ATL/PIT | 14 | 49 | 0.267 | 0.817 | 49.9 | 0.61 | 2,500,000 |
| 12 | Cody Ross | FLA | 14 | 49 | 0.278 | 0.833 | 48 | 0.33 | 2,225,000 |
| 13 | Chris Young | ARI | 6 | 25 | 0.198 | 0.661 | 29.8 | 0.44 | 1,950,000 |
| 14 | Willy Taveras | CIN | 1 | 11 | 0.238 | 0.575 | 25 | 0.36 | 1,500,000 |
| 15 | Melky Cabrera | NYY | 8 | 33 | 0.278 | 0.771 | 35.3 | 0.67 | 1,400,000 |
| 16 | Matt Kemp | LAD | 11 | 50 | 0.324 | 0.892 | 62 | 0.46 | 467,000 |
| 17 | Franklin Gutierrez | SEA | 10 | 37 | 0.297 | 0.809 | 42.9 | 0.43 | 455,000 |
| 18 | Jacoby Ellsbury | BOS | 5 | 28 | 0.301 | 0.755 | 50.9 | 0.69 | 449,500 |
| 19 | B.J. Upton | TAM | 7 | 33 | 0.246 | 0.721 | 47.2 | 0.45 | 435,000 |
| 20 | Adam Jones | BAL | 12 | 47 | 0.308 | 0.851 | 53.8 | 0.34 | 435,000 |
| 21 | Michael Bourn | HOU | 3 | 25 | 0.289 | 0.775 | 53.7 | 0.53 | 434,500 |
| 22 | Ryan Sweeney | OAK | 3 | 21 | 0.269 | 0.675 | 27 | 0.53 | 414,000 |
| 23 | Dexter Fowler | COL | 3 | 21 | 0.256 | 0.732 | 40.7 | 0.58 | 401,000 |
| 24 | Colby Rasmus | STL | 11 | 34 | 0.281 | 0.815 | 40.9 | 0.29 | 400,000 |
Most headings in the above should be familiar expect maybe for a couple: OPS (On-base plus slugging) which measures a player's ability to get on base and hit for powers; and RC (Runs created) which is an estimate of the number of runs a player contributes to his team. The modern formula takes many statistics into account, and is quite accurate (usually within %5) of the actual number.
Wells ranks as the 4th highest paid CF in the Bigs, with Beltran well in the lead and a relatively large grouping of players at the bottom end making less then $1M. The average salary for Big League CFs is $4,25M; Wells is over double that this year.
What's interesting to observe is the trend in salary:
The above plot shows CFs (ranked from lowest paid to highest paid) and their salaries. The results was not all that surprising for me: the trend was clearly exponential—the solid red line shows an exponential fit to the data points (For those number junkies, the actual trend line follows the function,
Salary = (149121)(exp{[rank]/4.89}) - 38885
If you don't understand what that means, then you're not a number junkie).
Basically, what the trend line shows is what a CF should make based on his salary rank. Points on the red line indicate that a player is making what he should for his rank, dots to the left of the line indicate that a player is making more than he should based on the trend, and dots on the right of the line indicate that a player is making less than he should based on the trend. Take a look at Wells (highlighted in blue): he is to the left of the line and thus is currently making more than the trend for CFs.
Here's where Wells ranks in all the above stats:
| HR | RBI | BA | OPS | RC | BB/K | Salary | |
| Rank | 12 | 13 | 16 | 20 | 14 | 7 | 4 |
One could make the fair assumption that if Vernon is making the 4th highest CF salary, then he should rank around 4th in all categories. He clearly does not. In fact, he ranks well below 4th in all stats that I've shown.
However, since the trend in salaries is not linear, maybe it's unfair to look at these statistics in a purely linear sense. Well, for this we need slightly more intense statistics (don't worry, this won't be too rough): z-score. Basically the z-score quantifies how a number compares to the average (technically it is the number of standard deviations from the mean); a high z-score means that a value is much higher than the average, and a very negative z-score means that a number is well below the average. Here are Wells' z-scores:
| HR | RBI | BA | OPS | RC | BB/K | Salary | |
| Wells | -0.01 | 0.08 | -0.47 | -0.82 | 0.01 | 0.44 | 0.98 |
Wells has a salary much above the average (z-score of 0.98) for CFs. One would would then hope that his performance in statistical categories is about this z-score as well. It is not. He is near average in 3 of 6 statistical categories (HR, RBI, RC). He's above average in only BB/K. The bad new is that he's well below the average in BA and OPS: two massively important categories for someone who the Jays reply on for his ability to get on base and drive runs in.
Compare these numbers to Beltran's:
| HR | RBI | BA | OPS | RC | BB/K | Salary | |
| Beltran | -0.23 | 0.24 | 1.89 | 1.91 | 0.71 | 2.68 | 2.71 |
Compared to the average salary for CFs ($4.25M), Beltran makes a shitload more ($19.24M), which is represented by the high z-score in that category (2.71). However, as opposed to Wells, Beltran also has high z-scores in RBI, BA, OPS, RC and BB/K; not quite 2.71 in those categories, but they're up there.
What does this all mean?
Well, according to the salary trend for this year, Vernon is overpaid for his rank. He also ranks below his salary rank in all 6 categories. Using a statistical approach, Wells is under performing; his z-scores rank below his salary in all 6 categories.
Now, let's remember that this is based on this 2009 salary. That all goes even more to shit when you consider he'll make $21M next year, then $23M the year after that. Oh, but there is hope the he might opt-out of his clearly inflated contract in 2011? Not a chance at this rate.
Conclusion: Vernon Wells is more of a fucking useless piece of shit than I thought. Numbers don't lie.
The only bright spot in a potential Halladay trade would be if they could package Wells and his ridiculous (or maybe even half) contract.
The Mendosa Limbo: how low can you go?
The brooms were out in Tampa Bay today as Halladay couldn't stop the sweep. The ALE has taught the Jays a lesson over the past two series and they're 2-8 over their last 10. The Jays now sit 9.5 back of Boston, 9 games back of the second place Yankees and 4.5 games behind the Rays to sit in 4th place in the division. Before the season started, in no way did I expect the Jays to be playoff contenders. Although, April and May did give me so hope that they wouldn't be this far back a week before the All-Star Game—here we are.
No matter what, I'll always be a Jays' fan and I'll watch as many games as I possibly can. The question is, at what point do we dedicated fans neatly file away our hope under 2010? I am personally setting the "Jays' Mendosa Line" at 10.1 GB: if the Jays at any point get to over ten games back, I will officially lose hope in a good season. By "good season" I mean hope that come September, the Jays will be flirting with a wild card spot. They don't have to be in the wild card spot, I just want a little drama—4 games out would be just fine.
Alright, so when the Jays reach the > 10 GB milestone, then what? I'm throwing my hope toward another team. The question is, what team? Well, it sure as hell won't be anyone from the AL, which leads to the NL. Allow me to very quickly eliminate a few teams: Not the fucking Cardinals, because fuck them; not the fucking Dodgers, because that team shits in the same toilets as Manny "my balls are tiny" Ramirez ; and not the fucking Philles because of '93. So there go the current division leaders. I'm not jumping on some retarded bandwagon.
I obviously don't want to start cheering for a team that's in a situation like the Jays, which eliminates a few more teams: Washington (duh), Pittsburgh, Arizona and San Diego. Of the teams are left, I've narrowed it down to three: The Cubs, The Astros and The Mets. Why?
The Mets (40-43)—They've got a really solid team. Question is, are they going to get healthy soon enough? With Delgado on the long term DL and Putz, Reyes, and Beltran on the short term DL, they're missing a good chuck of change. Sitting at 4.5 back of the Phillies in the NLE, they're in tough, but they still have a very legitimate chance of the division or the WC.
The Cubs(41-41)—There's something about their starting rotation. I really like Zambrano; he's done wonders for me in my fantasy league. Former Jay Ted Lilly is having a great season in the number two spot. Rookie Randy Wells is having a great season. Rich Harden is probably their worst starter and is having a very inconsistent season (dropped the son-of-a-bitch from my fantasy team), but he could straighten out at any time. They currently sit 3.5 back of the division leading Cardinals.
The Astros (41-43)—Having starters Roy Oswalt and Wandy Rodriguez, closer Jose Valverde, and position players Michael Bourn and Miguel Tajada on my fantasy team, I've taken advantage of the mlb.tv feature which allows me to switch to games when my players are hitting or pitching. So, over the past few weeks, I've taken in a lot of Huston Astros baseball. They are just simply fun to watch: they've got power, speed and pitching. It's great baseball. They currently sit 4.5 back of the Cardinals in the NLC
For now, I'm not really leaning more toward any of the three. I'm going to continue to watch them on mlb.tv and see how they do.
It really fucking pisses me off to think that if they Jays were in the NLE or NLC as my above group of three, they'd be in serious contention for the post season. Fuck you Bud Selig.
Rzepczynski - Zep-chin-skee
Rzepczynski—a 40 point word in scrabble given no bonuses—made his Major League debut last night against the Tampa Bay Rays; the kid was impressive. He went 6.0 innings allowing only 1 run on two hits. He also K'ed 7 but gave up 4 walks. His biggest test came in the 4th inning, where he walked two batters and gave up a single to load the bases with two outs. The only run given up by Rzepczynski came at this point when we walked Kapler to score Pena. With the bases still loaded, he pitched very well to Navarro, eventually getting him to ground out (6-3) to end the inning.
The bottom of the 4th showed that the kid has some guts: He got himself into trouble walking Pena, Bartlett and Navarro, but stayed composed and got himself out of the inning with little damage done. Seven strike-outs over six innings is definitely Big League worthy, but it will be interesting to see how professional hitters adjust as more scooting reports come in. He threw a total of 106 pitches, but only 62 strikes; control was definitely a issue throughout the outing, but the kid was probably struggling with nerves. Handshakes came from all around after the 6th as the kid was replaced by Camp in the 7th. He sat in the dugout with a smile beaming from ear to ear knowing that his first Big League start was a good one. Unfortunately, the Jays hitting couldn't get him the win.
The highlight of the game came in the top of the 8th when Scott Rolen singled to centre-field, extending his hit streak to 24 games and scored Scutaro from 3rd in the process, which eventually forced the game into extras. Shawn Camp pitched 3 no hit innings, with a strike-out and a walk. Unluckily for Brandon League, Burrell got a hold of a good pitch in the bottom of the 11th, ending the game with a two-run walk-off to the gap in left-centre.
My complete scorecard can be found here.
A disappointing loss for the Jays who now slip further into oblivion and sit 8 back of Boston for the division lead and 7 back of the Yankees. Do the Jays have a chance at making the post season? Not with how great The Sox and The Yanks have been playing over the past month. But, it's really in their hands. With a lot of inter-divisional games left to play, anything can happen.
I still have hope, I think.
